The overall portfolio lost 3.1% last week and now has total return of 18.0%. I sold 25 shares of Priceline.com for a 43% gain. All three of the remaining holding fell this week. Here's the current status of the stocks in the portfolio:
|Stock [purchase date]||Shares||Purchase Price|
Current Price 5/23/08
|Potash (POT) [6/7/07]||50|
|Southern Copper* (PCU) [11/13/07]||40|
sold 2/19/08 @ 109.05
|CNH Global NV** (CNH) [11/13/07]||50|
sold 4/07/08 @ 56.87
|BHP Billiton*** (BHP) [11/27/07]||50|
sold 2/19/08 @ $73.98
**On 2/1/2008, the system gave a sell signal for CNH.
***On 2/15/2008, the system gave a sell signal for BHP.
Stock [purchase date]
Current Price 5/23/08
|Apple** (AAPL) [1/17/08]||25|
sold 4/25/08 @ $169.06
|Research in Motion (RIMM) [1/17/08]||25|
sold 2/22/08 @ 103.23
|Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) [1/18/08]||20|
|Priceline (PCLN) [1/18/08]||25|
sold 5/20/08 @ 132.10
|Core Labs* (CLB) [1/25/08]||25|
sold 2/19/08 @ $121.67
|Google** (GOOG) [1/25/08]||20|
|Google** (GOOG) [2/1/08]||10|
sold 5/12/08 @ 582.12
|Google** (GOOG) [2/26/08]||10|
sold 4/29/08 @ 552.99
** On 3/7/2008, the system gave a sell signal for AAPL and GOOG. Previously, I had planned to hold GOOG since it is part of my core holdings. However, now I will sell this portfolio's remaining 20 shares (or an equivalent number of shares purchased earlier) of GOOG over the next few weeks, if the shares continue to rally.
The market rally appears to have ended, with indices down over 3%. As of the close on 5/23/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 4.92%, 7.83%, and 5.51% year to date, significantly up from lows of 9.37%, 16.58% and 11.86% in my 3/17/08 Stock Purchase Update, but down 3.85%, 3.33% and 3.44% from the previous week.
I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data in early 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. For either case, I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines. For now, I do not plan to add any more to the amounts that I have already invested in the above tables and will be looking to close out positions, even without a sell signal. I will take some profits on long term gains at a 0% tax rate on Potash and Google when possible.
Full disclosure: I own all the stocks mentioned in this post that are not indicated as sold.
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This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC