Monday, March 16, 2009

3/16/09 Stock Position Update - Looking to Sell if There is a Rally

Right after I bought 50 shares of Southwestern Energy, my system gave it a sell signal:-( Since all the stocks have received sell signals, I'm no longer buying from the 7/7/08 buy list, the 10/20/08 Buy List, or the buy list of 1/12/09. If there is a strong rally this week, I will try to sell these positions.

The portfolio was fell a little less than the overall market. The holdings are up 2.8% from the previous week, while the Dow was up 9.14%. The difference was primarily due to the lack of financial stocks in the holdings. The overall portfolio is down 27.3% and the remaining holdings are down 40.3%. The previous bottoms occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.

For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.

From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 and 1/12/09 Buy List
Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

Price on 3/13/09

Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50



Potash (POT) [7/18/08]*10



Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]*50



Potash (POT) [7/24/08]*10



Southwestern Energy (SWN) [3/5/09]*50



*Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. After received a buy signal on 1/12/09, Southwestern Energy received a second sell signal on 3/6/09. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.

At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock.

From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
Stock [short date]SharesShort Price


Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100


closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69

I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.

At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .

On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling again to $3.23 on 11/21/08. It closed at $2.27 on 3/13/09. It's too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)

The market continues to be choppy. The Dow and S&P have reached 12-year lows. As of the close on 3/13/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 7223.98, 1431.5, 756.55. All three indices have achieved new lows in 2009 in the past week and then advance signfificantly. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 declines are -16.93%, -9.23% and -15.67% respectively year to date.

Economists now acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. I held off reinvesting last week and plan to trickle in around 25% of the funds over the next few weeks. However, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.

Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, Sears Holdings and Williams Companies.

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This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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