I'm starting to feel a bit like Chicken Little with my recent calls for buying opportunities in October 2012October 2012 and July 2012. However, with President Obama's re-election and Republican House majority, I expect a stalemate on the impending fiscal cliff, a.k.a. Bush tax cut expiration, which will occur on January 1, 2013.
Here are the elements that will contribute to a buying opportunity:
- Brinkmanship. Despite the appearance of interest in compromise, I expect President Obama and House Republicans to take the issue to last possible moment before taking action. This will create high uncertainty for the stock market, which generally results in a significant decline or downward trend.
- Taking capital gains in 2012. Since tax rates and capital gains rates will be higher in 2013, selling stock and taking gains in 2012 may be an attractive option. This tax selling to capture gains will also cause the market to go lower. The 20+% decline in Apple stock may be an example of what may happen to other stock
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This is not financial or investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
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