Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed Conspiracy

"People love conspiracy theories." ~ Neil Armstrong

Here's my Fed conspiracy theory:   Despite guidance to the contrary, the Fed won't be raising interest rates for the next few years.   The Fed will continue to keep jawboning about raising rates to keep exuberant asset bubbles from forming, but will continually find a reason not to do so when the time comes.

If the Fed really intended to raise rates, it could have done it by now, several times given the relative strength of the economy.  So I don't believe the Fed really wants to raise rates.

In the meantime, I will use the volatility caused by the Fed jawboning to purchase good dividend paying stocks as they decline and to lock in higher interest rate on long term CDs.

For more on Ideas You Can Use , check back  Tuesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Wednesday, September 07, 2016

On Staying Invested in this Bull Market

"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." ~ Mark Twain

Despite the constant negativity from pundits, this bull market, which is the second longest at 7 -1/2 years, keeps grinding upwards.  This has been the most unloved bull market ever.   However, since March 2009, the best strategy has been to be invested in a diversified equity portfolio or a total market index and to add funds during any pullback or correction.

I, unfortunately, haven't been that brilliant.   Only about 25% of our funds are invested in equities,   However, I have been good about keeping that portion mostly invested, with only occasional instances of small profit taking.  Keeping the percentage of funds invested low had been worth the lost opportunity cost.  I have low anxiety about the funds that are invested, and therefore can sleep well at nights.

Despite warnings about the imminent end of the bull market, I will continue to keep about about 25% invested.   When the bull market does end, and it will, I will be able to bear the loss and be prepared to invest in the inevitable recovery.

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back Wednesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Monday, September 05, 2016

One Way to Time the Market

The Holy Grail of investing is to get in just before the market rallies and to get out just as the market tops.  Although I have had occasional flashes of success (such as selling before the 2011 correction), I have not been able to consistently make the right call.   The toughest part is deciding when to get back in the market after getting out.

So now I use a different approach to time the market.  Whenever the a stock I own rises significantly, I may sell off part of the position.   If it rises further, I sell off another part.     This continues until I until I sell out of the position.   Similarly if a stock in which I am interested in buy falls, I may buy a small position. If it fall further, I add another small portion.  I do this until I have reached my target position.

An astute investor might note that the commission costs of each trade may make this approach prohibitively expensive.  My solution is to do this trade in commission free ETFs offered by the major discount brokers.   I can trade as little as one share with $0 commission cost.  The only caution is that some brokerages have a minimum holding period of 30 days, which is not that difficult to meet.   Some brokerages have no minimum holding period, which offers even more flexibility.

I have been doing this timing trade with a total market index ETF.   Right now I am selling off small positions, because I expect to be buying back at a lower price soon.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back Mondays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC