In Preparing for a Correction, I listed 4 negative factors that could take the stock market down. Four weeks later, it appears all four factors are much less negative or even neutral to positive. The market is trending up, Larry Summers has withdrawn from being considered for the Fed Chair, Syria has been defused, and Fed tapering will soon be fait accompli.
So why am I still pessimistically cautious? Mainly because I'd rather be negative and have things turn out better than be positive (like in 2007) and have things turn out badly (like in 2008/2009). I have been pleasantly surprised by and have benefited from the stock market rebound of the last two weeks.
However, the is still the debt ceiling and budget debate yet to come. So I continue to expect the worst and hope for the best :-)
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