Are Bonds Predicting a Recession?

"It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." ~ Yogi Berra

Last week, all my bonds and bond mutual funds increased in value.  I thought that was strange since the 30 year bond increased to almost a 5% yield , which means bond prices are falling, when the courts ruled against the tariffs.  However, later that week, the jobs numbers were poor, causing investors to worry about a possible recession, and in turn flocked to the safety of U.S. bonds. 

Do I know which direction the stock market is heading?  LOL, no! I'm just speculating based on the data that is available to me.   In reality, if I knew what is going to happen, I wouldn't be blogging about it.  I would just quietly YOLO and make millions.

Personally, with U.S. Debt at all time highs and rising, with Student Loan, Auto and Mortgage defaults increasing, and Credit Card debt at an all time high, I don't feel the economy and the stock market can continue doing well. So, I will take a path of being cautiously risk averse.  I'm slightly reducing our equity and bond investments and putting funds in short term money markets. Yes, I may miss out on significant gains if the market continues to only go up.    At the same time, I won't feel as much pain if the market declines significantly.

GLTA, which ever way you believe the economy and stock market are headed.

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This is not financial nor investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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