Outcome Bias -YMMV

Our brains look for patterns especially patterns that appear to result in success.

We assume that successful outcomes result from taking certain actions or making certain choices based on those who have been successful.  For example, to be a very successful investor, do what Warren Buffet would do would be recommendation based on his success results.  Naturally, people believe that doing what successful people have done will lead to success.

The main fallacy with this logic is that it rarely includes those people that took similar actions and make similar decisions and did not succeed.   What if 99 other people were Warren Buffet like but did not get the same great results or even lost money.  That would imply there is only a 1% chance of success using the Warren Buffet methodology, which is not a high probability.  Another fallacy is that we don't know every one of Warren Buffet's actions or choices on what to do or not do.   One of those missing pieces of information may have been the key to success.  Finally, we don't know how much luck, or factors not in Warren Buffet's control, contributed to his success.

All of these factors suggest that doing what one thinks other successful people have done does not guarantee one will also be successful.  YMMV when using strategies and plans that were previously led to successful outcomes.

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This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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