Saturday, February 28, 2009

The Story of Two Envelopes

There once was a great company, which fell on hard times due to an economic downturn. The CEO was ousted by the board and a new CEO was elected. The outgoing CEO wished the new CEO luck, and offered the new CEO two numbered envelopes advising, "When you have a crisis you can't solve, open these envelopes in order."

The new CEO turned the company around and had several good years. However, soon afterwards the company had a crisis, that couldn't be solve quickly. The new CEO's job was at risk, and then he remembered the advice from the previous CEO. He found the envelopes and opened the first one. Inside, there was a note," Blame it on your predecessor."

The CEO immediately called a press conference and blamed the woes of the company on his predecessor. The CEOs job was saved. The company recovered and returned to prosperity. The CEO was elected Business Leader of the Year. The CEO made a mental to open the second envelope when needed in the future.

After couple more good years, an economic downturn occurred again. Once again the company's fortunes turned for the worse and their was talk of replacing the CEO. Remembering how the first envelope had saved his career, the CEO opened the second envelope with great hope.

In it was another short note, " Make two envelopes."

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

Photo Credit: morgueFile.com, Jane M. Sawyer

This is not financial or career advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Inverse (Short) ETF Portfolio Update - 2/28/09

The stock market is continues to be strange in early 2009. The market is volatile at unexpected times, e.g. after announcements by the Obama administration, and surprisingly calm in the face of bad news. I believe the market action indicates that it may be nearing a bottom.

To hedge against the market falling in November to December, 2008, I had purchased small positions of Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS), Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF) and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). These are inverse market index ETFs, meaning they rise when the market falls and vice versa.

In mid January, 2009, I was able to sell the Ultrashort Financial Proshares and one lot of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares at a profit. In the past week, the two remaining inverse ETFs advanced again as the broader market fell in response to the Obama administration's budget proposal, which includes bigger government, more spending and higher taxes. I will continue to hold these ETFs since there is a possibility of the market continuing to fall as the elements of the stimulus package and budget proposal are further analyzed.

Hedging in a Volatile Market
Inverse ETF [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

Price on 2/27/09

Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). [11/21/08]100

$38.21

$30.50

Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF)[12/11/08]20

$118.99

sold 10 shares at $140.33 on 1/14/09

sold 10 shares at $165.95 on 1/16/09

Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/11/08]20

$81.64

$80.34

Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/17/08]20

$62.62

sold all shares at $66.82 on 1/14/09



I purchased these ETF because I believed they would provide some protection if the market should fall. However, upon further investigation, I learned that these ETFs can fall even if the market index declines over time, due to the ETFs being based on the daily return of the index, which Proshares customer service confirmed when I asked them about my observation. The Motley Fool has a great explanation, with an example, of how these 2X inverse ETFs may not protect against a long term decline in the index.

Based on my new learnings, I will not buy any other inverse ETFs and continue to unwind these positions, hopefully at a profit, but at a loss if needed. However, if the Ultrashort Financial Proshares ETF drops below $100, I may consider buying a new 20 share position, especially if I no longer own the Ultrashort Real Estate and the Ultrashort Oil & Gas ETFs.

Lesson learned: Don't buy derivative investments when I don't fully understand how they work, as in the case of 2X inverse ETFs.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own shares of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) , and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG).

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Friday, February 27, 2009

T.G.I.F. - This has been a long week

Although I only work part time, I am glad its Friday and my commitments are over. Although there weren't any major incidents, here's what made this week so long:

  • Eight hour working shifts. This week, I worked two eight hour shifts in the three days I was scheduled, which isn't normal. I guess I'm no longer used to eight straight hours of work, as I was before taking early retirement. One of the days, I did not work with a single clients, which made it particularly boring. The other day, I attended a training class in the morning and had back to back appointments the rest of the day. I felt worn out after both of these shifts.

    On the day I had a four hour shift, I took the opportunity to attend a networking event to identity other part time job opportunities, essentially making it an eight hour workday too. Of course, I don't expect any sympathy for this element :-)


  • Evening commitments. Uncharacteristically, I had four evening commitments of three to four hours. Two evenings were devoted to a plumbing class, which I am used to since I have been attending them for a few weeks already. However, for this week, I volunteered to sub for a tennis league and we took our daughter to a local school fundraising carnival on another night.

    I felt a bit overbooked, with only one free evening during the week.


  • Exercise intensity. I consciously increased my exercise frequency to five days a week, with three days of strength training and two days of cardio. All done in the mooring before work or other activities. Coincidentally, subbing for tennis added a third instance of cardio during the week.

    Physically, my body was beat and I now realize I can't take it like I did in my twenties and thirties:-)


  • Winter cold. I seem to have caught the latest cold that is circulating in our area. My spouse and daughter got it the first round, and I got sick with the second round. Since I've caught the cold, I've felt tired and achy, even more so than just from exercising.

  • Individually, none of the elements was a issue. It was the occurrence of all of them during the same week that made it challenging. Hopefully, being old is not the real reason :-) At this point, I expect next week will be easier as I get over the cold, have only two evening commitments for the week, and cut back on my strength training for a couple weeks.

    For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

    Photo Credit: morgueFile.com, RAYWAL65

    This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Thursday, February 26, 2009

    Successful Dieting Really Hasn't Changed

    Twenty-five years ago, successful dieting simply meant reducing food intake. Less eaten meant more fat used, and a loss of weight. Since then, numerous diets have advocated that the type of food eaten was more important that the reduction of calories. Low fat, low carbohydrate, and high protein are just a few examples.

    According to Calorie Counters Have It Right, Diet Study Says in The Wall Street Journal, a National Institute of Health (NIH) study showed that weight loss correlated most with the amount of calories eaten. Participants were put on one of four diets that had 750 calories less than they needed per day. After two years, participants lost an average nine pounds and two inches in their waist, no matter which diet they used.

    Bottom line: No matter the diet, what's really important is restricting the calories. In one way, nothing has really changed about dieting in 25 years. On the other hand, we now know there are endless food options, as long as we reduce the calories.

    For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or health advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Wednesday, February 25, 2009

    Reduce Spending without Sacrificing Lifestyle #5 - Enjoy What You Already Have

    We've started tightening our belts in the My Wealth Builder household. Our target is to reduce our annual expenditures by 5% without any reduction in our current lifestyle. Our first idea was to eliminate waste , i.e. money that's spent on goods and services but not effectively used. Our second idea was to buy below the regular price. Our third idea was to take advantage of free offerings. Our fourth idea is choose only the options we need when making a purchase. Our fifth, and final, approach is to enjoy what we already have:

  • Home Recreation. I confess, I am guilty of acquiring a few home recreation items, which have seen limited use over the past few years. They include a pool table and a Foosball table. I enjoyed playing these games in my college days and thought they would be fun to have in our recreation room. However, I now realized one can't recreate the fun times from the past:-)

    I don't feel as bad about the hot tub and jacuzzi which were part of the house we purchased five years ago. However, they are still available and relatively unused by our family.

    For some reason, we don't think of these options when deciding on entertainment or fun things to do. Part of the reason is that our four year old daughter cannot easily participate in some of these.

    This year, we will consciously think of the existing recreation options when considering entertainment activities for the family.


  • Memberships. It's easy to not fully utilize memberships, because we don't feel any urgency to do the activity We've now let most of our memberships expire and have only maintained two -- my company health club and a local water park.

    At this point, I am getting full use of the health club membership. The club trainers have developed a strength program, which I have been doing three times a week. I have been doing some cardio training on the off days. I will have used the facility 100% of the open days in February, which is only weekdays since it is only open on workdays. My spouse is currently using the facility 2 days a week.

    I am looking forward to the water park this summer. I hope to take our daughter there at least 3 days a week.


  • Visit local attractions. Like memberships, there never seems to be an urgency to see the local attractions where one lives. I grew up near Washington, D.C. and only visited the national attractions a few times while living there. Now, I wish I had visited a museum at least once a month while I had the luxury of doing so

    While we currently don't have the offerings of a Washington, D.C., there are still many local attractions which could fill up several years if we chose to visit one or two a month.
  • Writing this post has helped me remember that there are lots of entertainment opportunities that somehow aren't fully used by us in our daily lives. Since we already have them, we can reduce spending by just using them more often :-)

    For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or entertainment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tuesday, February 24, 2009

    Will this Week be a Buying or Selling Opportunity?

    Tonight President Obama will address Congress and later this week, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is expected to release more details on the bank bailout plan. Sooo....the big question is: Will the markets rally or fall after these speeches?

    As I've written before, I have a very poor record in predicting the market direction after a major event. Most recently, I took an "opposite" approach and predicted the markets would advanceafter Mr. Geithner's press conference on February 9, 2009, even though my instincts said market decline. Well, my instincts were correct that time, increasing my percentage of wrong predictions.

    This time, I'm going with my instincts and predicting that the markets will fall after their respective speeches. Here are the reasons:


    1. Insufficient Details. I expect the speeches to be big on vision, high on inspiration and low on details. That will scare investors since there will be no clear understanding on how seemingly opposite results can be achieved simultaneously. For example, the stimulus bill just passed seems to be loaded with pork and deficit spending. At the same time, President Obama plans to cut the deficit in half by 2013, through the magic of technological efficiency. The concept of "then a miracle occurs" is not sufficient detail for the stock market :-)


    2. Not Addressing the Real Problem. Just about everybody acknowledges that the root cause of the problem are toxic mortgage securities that continue to decline in value. However, very little has been done to eliminate the toxic securities, i.e. have the government buy them. I expect the speeches will continue to have actions that do everything but deal directly with these toxic assets.


    3. Bigger Government. I expect President Obama's vision to include bigger government, including more health care, more wealth transfer, and more green, under the guise of more effective and efficient use of resources. The stock market will probably remember the efficiency with which government just made the transfer to digital broadcasts on February 17, 2009.

    If the speeches follow the outline above, I expect the market to fall and it will be a buying opportunity. However, Messers Obama and Geithner can include a detailed plan that is viewed as having potential to return to economic growth, I expect the markets will rally, offering me a selling opportunity to exit my investments in financial stocks.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    What I Hope to Hear from President Obama and Secretary Geithner this Week

    "Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that’s creativity." — Charles Mingus

    This week, President Obama and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be speaking again on the state of the economy and financial crisis. Hopefully, this time they will provide some specific plans and solutions to address the issue. I'm tired of hearing about how difficult, complicated and complex the problem is and how it will take two, no maybe three Presidential terms to deliver the solution.

    Personally, I think the solution is straightforward. People have acknowledged that the overwhelming issue is the holding of toxic mortgage securities by financial institutions. Take those securities off the books of financial institutions, make them healthy once again and let them get back to the business of lending money. So the answer is: The U.S. government should buy the toxic mortgage securities and hold them to maturity. This would bring a quick end to the financial crisis and restore confidence.

    OK, it's not my great idea. The solution of buying toxic assets was the basis for getting approval for $700 billion of TARP funds. Somehow, none to the money was used to buy toxic assets, because it was too difficult to do. In the meantime, the toxic assets deteriorated further, bringing the economy to its knees, and requiring an additional $787 billion stimulus package. And still the government is not buying the toxic securities.

    No one has said that the government buying toxic securities won't work. Everyone has said that it's too hard to do. I hope that President Obama and Secretary Geithner will decide to do what's needed, instead of continuing the rhetoric of complexity, doom and gloom.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or economic policy advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Links to Carnivals from February 17 - 23, 2009

    Here is the Carnival in which My Wealth Builder participated from February 17 - 23, 2009:

    Festival of Frugality #165

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Monday, February 23, 2009

    Tim Geithner - Act II

    According to CNBC.com, Tim Geithner is expected to hold another press conference this week to provide further details on how the Treasury plans to solve the issue of toxic debt at the banks. Of course, my expectations are extremely low, given the dismal performance at his first press conference on February 10, 2009.

    Whatever the outcome from this press conference, I plan to sell the three financial stocks, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo, which I own in my Bottom Fishing Portfolio. This weekend my spouse reminded me that although I have called financial stocks toxicin November, 2008, I have not acted on this perspective because the financial stocks are still in our account. Thus, no matter what direction the financial stocks move, I will sell them in the next couple weeks and reinvest the funds into stocks like Monsanto, Amazon or Energy Conversion Devices, which are all above their November 21, 2008 lows.

    Hopefully, Mr Geithner's performance and message will be much better than in Act I, for his sake, the economy's sake and the stock market's sake.

    Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own all the mentioned stocks, except Energy Conversion Devices, in our personal trading account.

    For more on Strategy and Plans, check back every Monday Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    2/23/09 Stock Position Update - Down as Dow Reaches 6 Year Low

    I continue to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. Since all the stocks have received sell signals, I'm no longer buying from the 7/7/08 buy list. I have also not taken any action on the 10/20/08 Buy List, which has received sell signals for 5 out of 5 of the stocks by 11/2/08. I finalized a new buy list on 1/12/09.

    The portfolio was down as market indices were down for the week. The holdings are down 10.4% from the previous week, due primarily to energy stock declines. The agricultural stock, Potash, only fell 2.5% The overall portfolio is down 30.8% and the remaining holdings are down 47.3%. The previous bottoms occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.

    For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 and 1/12/09 Buy List
    Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 2/20/09

    Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

    $58.17

    $33.17

    Potash (POT) [7/18/08]*10

    $215.09

    $83.96

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]*50

    $39.46

    $27.63

    Potash (POT) [7/24/08]*10

    $192.02

    $83.96


    *Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.

    At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock, except for Southwestern Energy, which appears on the new 1/12/09 buy list.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
    Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

    $38.10

    closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69


    I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.

    At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .

    On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling again to $3.23 on 11/21/08. It closed at $2.60 on 2/20/09. It's too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)

    The market continues to be choppy. All three indices are in bear market territory. As of the close on 2/20/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 7365.67, 1441.23, 741.02. The Dow fell below the 2008 closing low of 7552.29 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still above their respective 2008 closing lows of 1316.12, and 752.44 , respectively. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are returns are -14.38%, -8.51% and -13.36% respectively year to date.

    Economists now acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. I plan to trickle in around 25% of the funds this week. However, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Sunday, February 22, 2009

    2/22/09 Bottom Fishing Portfolio - Nationalization Talk Massacres Financial Stocks

    On Friday, October 3, 2008, I couldn't resist the temptation of buying some stocks before the bailout vote. I bought shares of Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Monsanto (MON). I believed that these three banks will not only survive this financial crisis, but will be one the four major banking powers in the next year. Monsanto was down over 50% from its high and its seed and agricultural businesses are still very strong.

    As part of this portfolio, I have also been selling put contracts to open on specific stocks. I have been selling put contracts at one to two months from expiration on Monsanto and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER).

    In December, 2008, I decided to buy some Ford (F) call options, to capitalize on a possibility of a rebound if Congress supports an auto industry bailout. Since the automaker bailout did not cause a large bounce for Ford, all the calls have expired worthless.

    I began thinking about buying some high dividend paying stocks, such as DuPont (DD), Pfizer (PFE) and Alcoa (AA), which are paying 6-7% dividends and are picks in the Dogs of the Dow system. However, after companies started cutting dividends, I've decided to not to use this strategy. For example, Bank of America, which was the top percentage dividend payer in the 2009 Dogs of the Dow selections, cut its dividend from $1.28 per year to $0.01 per year. Pfizer, also a top 5 2009 Dog, also cut its dividend in half.

    In hindsight, I bought the financial stocks way too early. I've learned my lesson. I will not purchase any more financial company stocks, until there is a more clear turnaround in the financial crisis of 2008. Of the three financial stocks, Bank of America has been the worst pick, being down 90.03%. I now believe there is a high probability Bank of America will not survive the financial crisis and economic downturn.

    My new strategy with financial stocks is to purchase 4 - 12 month out of the money call options. If financial stocks should recover significantly in the next year, I could make several hundred dollars. If there is no recovery, my losses are limited to the call purchase, which will be less than $200. For now, this strategy has worked well in limiting losses while allowing the portfolio to participate in the occasional financial rallies.

    The portfolio was down 13.8% in the past week, versus a market fall of 10.1% in the Dow. Financial stocks fell due the talk of nationalization of banks and the lack of any plan specifics to address the financial from the Treasury department. On the other hand, Monsanto was flat in a week the indices were down up to 6.63%. The overall portfolio is down 50.65%, falling below the previous low of -45.30% in December, 2008.

    Bottom Fishing Portfolio
    Stock or Option [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 2/20/09

    Bank of America(BAC) [10/3/08]100

    $38.00

    $3.79

    J.P. Morgan (JPM) [10/3/08]100

    $49.74

    $19.90

    Wells Fargo (WFC) [10/3/08]100

    $37.07

    $10.91

    Monsanto (MON) [10/3/08]50

    $88.97

    $79.68

    Ford Dec 5 call (FLA) [12/2/08]1000

    $0.078

    expired 12/20/08 at $0

    Ford Jan 7.5 call (FAU) [12/3/08]1000

    $0.088

    expired 1/16/09 at $0

    PNC May 45 call (PNCEI) [1/20/09]100

    $1.51

    $0.45

    PNC Jan 55 call (WYLAK) [1/20/09]100

    $1.71

    $1.50


    Currently, I have profited from all five put contracts which have been closed or allowed to expired. I will continue to sell put contracts on Energy Conversion Devices and Monsanto.


    Put Contracts Sold Short to Open
    Option [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price on 2/20/09

    Monsanto Nov 60 put (MONWL) [10/3/08]100

    $2.39

    closed on 10/29/08 for $0.91

    Energy Conversion Nov 20 put (EQIWD) [11/12/08]100

    $0.69

    expired 11/21/08 at $0

    Monsanto Dec 40 put (MONXI) [11/20/08]100

    $1.19

    expired 12/20/08 at $0

    Energy Conversion Dec 17.5 put (EQIXW) [11/25/08]100

    $1.39

    expired 12/20/08 at $0

    Energy Conversion Feb 15 put (EQINC) [1/14/09]100

    $0.44

    expired 2/19/08 at $0



    It's clear to me that the financial stocks will not likely recover in the near future. If these stocks should rally significantly, I will look to close out the long positions in the financial stocks.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I own shares of Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo and Monsanto shares. I am long PNC call contracts in our trading account. Alcoa and Pfizer shares are owned in our managed accounts.

    For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Saturday, February 21, 2009

    Hero or Zero?

    Crises have a way of quickly showing whether individuals are heroes or zeroes. The financial crisis of 2008, and now 2009, is no different. It has quickly made evident the number of zeroes that exist in business and government.

  • ZEROES

  • CEOs. Ken Lewis, Bank of America CEO, was named 2008 Banker of the Year. Bank of America , which acquired Countrywide Mortgage and Merrill Lynch in 2008, has lost over 90% of it's market capitalization from the peak. Ken Lewis is a ZERO. Rick Wagoner, CEO of GM, --ZERO. Bob Nardelli, CEO of Chrysler, LLC, --ZERO.


  • Government. Former Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulsen had a brief moment as a hero, when he proposed TARP I to buy bad assets. He quickly became a ZERO, when he didn't do what he promised. Tim Geithner has followed the same path as his former boss, from hero when his appointment was announced in November, 2008, to ZERO when he had his first press conference on February 10, 2009. Oh, and don't forget he paid zero social security taxes while working for the IMF.

    Candidate Obama was perceived a hero by some, as he promoted hope, change, inspiration and bi-partisanship. President Obama now talks fear, catastrophe, and a single party agenda. To me, the Democrats are using the financial crisis to impose Socialism on the American people, under the guise of saving the economy. The administration's latest plan to prevent home foreclosures is great example. Based on his first month in office, President Obama is a ZERO, which is not surprising based on the lack of any significant results in his prior record of public and community service.

    While I'm at it, let's add Congress to the list of ZEROES, especially Rep. Barney Frank and Sen. Christopher Dodd. And let's not forget the Chair of the SEC, Christopher Cox -- ZERO, which is what investors with Bernie Madoff have remaining in their accounts. Soon to be a ZERO, Sheila Bair, Chair of the FDIC.

    Finally, to show my bipartisanship:-), I include former President George W. Bush and candidate Sarah Palin as ZEROES.

  • HEROES


  • Responsible Americans. The real HEROES are those who live within their means, pay their mortgages (92% of mortgage holders), keep their small businesses going, and pay their taxes. If they lose their jobs, they'd rather work for less than accept government assistance. They don't whine when the financial situation becomes difficult. They understand the American values of standing on one's own two feet, being responsible for one's action, and opposing the socialism that's being imposed on us.


  • CEOs. There aren't many worthy of consideration. My vote for HERO is Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, which had a record holiday sales season in 2008. Steve Jobs of Apple would be a close second.


  • Journalistic truth. This video is going viral, with over a million views in the first couple days. Surprisingly, the White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs (another ZERO), thought it was necessary to respond with a patronizing and insulting comment. I guess the Obama administration doesn't appreciate people holding up a mirror and telling them the truth, as they have offered to do for others :-)

    We need more journalists like Rick Santelli, who recognize and say that the emperor has no clothes.

  • Unfortunately, but not unexpected, there are many more zeroes than heroes nowadays. Hopefully, the proportion will change when we decide it's time to reward responsibility and to stop rewarding irresponsible behavior.

    For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

    This is not financial, political or policy advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Inverse (Short) ETF Portfolio Update - 2/21/09

    The stock market is continues to be strange in early 2009. The market is volatile at unexpected times, e.g. after announcements by the Obama administration, and surprisingly calm in the face of bad news. I believe the market action indicates that it is nearing a bottom.

    To hedge against the market falling in November to December, 2008, I had purchased small positions of Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS), Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF) and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). These are inverse market index ETFs, meaning they rise when the market falls and vice versa.

    In mid January, 2009, I was able to sell the Ultrashort Financial Proshares and one lot of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares at a profit. The Ultrashort Financial Proshares continued to rise in mid January, going as high as $200 before falling back to $158.78 at the end of Janaury.

    In the past week, the two remaining inverse ETFs advanced as the broader market fell in response to government actions and inactions to solve the financial crisis. I will continue to hold these ETFs since there is a possibility of the market continuing to fall as the elements of the stimulus package are further analyzed.

    Hedging in a Volatile Market
    Inverse ETF [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 2/20/09

    Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). [11/21/08]100

    $38.21

    $28.69

    Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF)[12/11/08]20

    $118.99

    sold 10 shares at $140.33 on 1/14/09

    sold 10 shares at $165.95 on 1/16/09

    Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/11/08]20

    $81.64

    $72.28

    Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/17/08]20

    $62.62

    sold all shares at $66.82 on 1/14/09



    I purchased these ETF because I believed they would provide some protection if the market should fall. However, upon further investigation, I learned that these ETFs can fall even if the market index declines over time, due to the ETFs being based on the daily return of the index, which Proshares customer service confirmed when I asked them about my observation. The Motley Fool has a great explanation, with an example, of how these 2X inverse ETFs may not protect against a long term decline in the index.

    Based on my new learnings, I will not buy any other inverse ETFs and continue to unwind these positions, hopefully at a profit, but at a loss if needed. However, if the Ultrashort Financial Proshares ETF drops below $100, I may consider buying a new 20 share position, especially if I no longer own the Ultrashort Real Estate and the Ultrashort Oil & Gas ETFs.

    Lesson learned: Don't buy derivative investments when I don't fully understand how they work, as in the case of 2X inverse ETFs.

    Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own shares of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) , and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG).

    For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Now Another Reason to Owe Taxes Instead of Getting a Refund

    I've always been a proponent of paying a small amount with my tax return versus getting a refund. The reason is that I prefer to have the use of my own money instead of giving an interest free loan to the government.

    The economic crisis of 2008 has given me another good reason. Two states, California and Kansas, temporarily stopped issuing tax refunds due to a budgetary crisis. So even though the money rightfully belongs to the taxpayer (since it is overpayment of taxes), the state is refusing to issue a refund, because of it didn't manage its budget properly. Sheesh.

    Another example of why I don't want government handling, spending, or holding money that is rightfully mine.

    For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Friday, February 20, 2009

    Renaissance Man

    As I near the completion of my continuing education classes, I feel like a renaissance man, even though I didn't get to take all the courses I originally planned to do. So far I've completed courses in Masonry, Electrical Wiring, Gourmet Cooking and Residential Landscaping. Currently I'm taking a Plumbing course. In the future, I'm planning to take a real estate agent licensing course and Travel and Tourism course. I am also considering taking courses in real estate appraisal, home inspection and bartending.

    Here's house the courses have been useful to me so far:
  • Minor electrical work. From the course, I learned that a common practice was to wire an outdoor outlet to an internal GFIC outlet, which then provided protection to a regular outlet. Using a special tester, I was able to confirm that all outdoor outlets were GFIC protected. I also identified the internal GFIC outlet to which is was wired. Thus, I have confirmed that all GFIC protected outlets are working and now know which GFIC circuit is tripped if there is a ground fault.

    Taking the course also gave me the confidence to rewire our gas stove, which I shorted out when I spilled a pot of water on the switches. In addition, I have been able differentiate original wiring from added wiring, and know that the additions were done correctly.

    Estimated savings: $200


  • Brickwork repair. I now know how to repair mortar joints in both walkways and a building. A big benefit was find a local mortar distributor that was able to match the mortar color of my house. This will be a project for this spring.

    Savings: $5000


  • Restaurant business perspective. The gourmet cooking class taught be that I don't want to be in the restaurant business. However, I learned few great recipes that I can now cook at home. My favorites are Teriyaki Salmon and Strawberries Flambe.


  • Tree Trimming. I now have a better understanding of how and when (late fall to late winter) to prune trees. I've been slowly working through our yard and will hopefully complete the job by early March.

    Estimated savings: $300


  • Copper soldering. I always wanted to learn how to correctly solder copper piping. Now I know and have done it successfully. I may use the skills to create a copper pipe yard sprayer for our daughter's enjoyment.

  • Hopefully, I will get as much benefit out of the remaining courses. Tentatively, I'm investigating becoming a part time real estate agent. The course should help me make a better decision. The travel and tourism course will hopefully provide some insight into that business.

    For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

    This is not financial, home repair, or career advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Thursday, February 19, 2009

    Being Prepared Helps Avoid a Choking Incident

    "Be prepared." ~ Boy Scout motto

    Recently, I had the opportunity to use something I never expected to need, the Heimlich maneuver. It happened one evening, while the family was watching TV. Our four year old daughter was eating a piece of chewy candy and started coughing. I asked her if she was OK, but she could barely manage a whisper. I anxiously asked her to say something to me, and she barely could wheeze out a couple words.

    Although she appeared OK, I decided to grab her and gently used the Heimlich maneuver. After the second squeeze, a small piece of candy popped into her mouth. I took it out, intending to throw it away. However, our daughter wasn't going to give up a piece of candy and wanted to continue eating it. I gave it back to her, with instructions to let it melt in her mouth, and she finished it without incident. We finished our evening activities and put her to bed.

    While I felt I did the right thing, I wasn't really sure that I had helped. However, later that week, our daughter told my spouse that the candy had made it hard for her to breath, i.e. she really had been close to choking. So I'm glad I did what I did.

    In the words of Mastercard, price of being prepared by learning the Heimlich maneuver - $0. The value of executing it correctly - priceless.

    For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or health advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Wednesday, February 18, 2009

    Reduce Spending without Sacrificing Lifestyle #4 - Be Choiceful on Options

    We've started tightening our belts in the My Wealth Builder household. Our target is to reduce our annual expenditures by 5% without any reduction in our current lifestyle. Our first idea was to eliminate waste , i.e. money that's spent on goods and services but not effectively used. Our second idea was to buy below the regular price. Our third idea was to take advantage of free offerings. Our fourth idea is choose only the options we need when making a purchase.

    A common marketing tactic is to get consumers to trade up with additional options or features and, therefore, pay a higher price. While some options may be worthwhile, we are making a conscious effort to choose only the options we need in any upcoming purchases


  • Vehicles. Although we are not currently looking to buy a car, my favorite example is an automobile purchase. The base model is often a functional vehicle, with the requisite safety features. From there, a purchaser can add leather seats, electric locks, premium audio, sunroof, etc ... the list can be very long. It's quite easy to forget about the main purpose of the item and become caught up with nice but not necessary options.

    I admit that I have purchased cars with many of these options. However, I've now think that leather upholstery and a premium audio system may be better options for our home versus a car. For my most recent vehicle purchase, in 2003, I bought the base level truck, i.e. manual transmission, air conditioning, and cassette/radio. Even though it doesn't have any options, it gets me from point A to B as fast as any loaded luxury vehicle on the road.


  • Insurance. It's easy to be overly cautious and over insure against a loss. One way to reduce premium costs is to reduced the number of things for which one is insured. When we first purchased our house, I insured against sewer backup since we had a finished basement. After moving in, I caused the sewer management department and learned there had not been a sewer backup in our neighborhood since it was built. We dropped the coverage soon afterwards.

    We typically take higher deductibles when insuring our home contents and automobiles. I will be reviewing the deductible limits again since it has been five years since we purchased our house and cars. It may be worth dropping collision on our automobiles.

    Finally, we never buy extended warranties on any products we purchase. If it isn't made well enough to last past the one year warranty, then I would prefer not to buy it :-)


  • Gadgets. It's easy to get caught by the options offered by gadgets. GPS vs. reading a map. A laser level vs. a standard four foot level. An Ipod vs. a home stereo system. A blackberry vs. a cell phone. For me, the simple base option is sufficient for my needs. In the case of a cell phone, my choice is even not to own the base option.

    Of course, if I get an option at no additional cost, as I did with a free Ipod, I am happy to accept it:-)
  • Overall, we are already very choiceful when deciding about options. Our main opportunity is to review our insurance choices to determine if there are possible savings.


    For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or insurance advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tax Cuts in Stimulus Bill - Who Gets Help

    Stimulus: Who Gets The Tax Cuts at CNBC.com summarizes the impact of the stimulus package tax cuts for individuals, business, state and local government, and renewable energy.

    Here's my brief summary of the tax cut benefits for individuals by income level:

  • Low income. Earned income credit is increased for taxpayers with three or more children. Currently, the maximum credit is reached at two or more children. In addition, the limit for triggering the refundable additional child tax credit is lowered to $3000 from $8500 in 2008.


  • Low to middle income. Up to the first $400 (individual) and $800 (couple) for FICA (i.e. Social Security tax) will be refunded. Effectively, the a taxpayer will not pay Social Security taxes on the first $6451 (individual) or $12903 (couple) of income. This credit is phased out for individuals with adjusted gross income over $75,000 and couples over $150,000.

    However, instead of providing a rebate check, as was done in 2008, the plan is to reduce withholding in 2009 and provide the reconcile the credit in the 2009 tax return.

    In addition, there is an $8,000 refundable tax credit for first-time home buyers who purchase from January 1 to November 30, 2009. The tax credit phases out for individuals earning more than $75,000 and couples earning more than $150,000.


  • Middle income. A new college tax credit of $2500 is introduced, which phases out for individuals with incomes over $80,000 and couples with incomes over $160,000.


  • Middle to high income. Another single year AMT patch has been passed. The stimulus bill increases the AMT exemption to $70,950 for joint filers and $46,200 for individuals for 2009. Thus, people who didn't pay an AMT last year, most likely won't pay an AMT tax this year, if there is no change to their tax situation.
  • For those that can manage there income, e.g. self employed and retirees, knowing the tax benefits and income limitations ahead of time can help choose an income strategy that reduces tax liability and, therefore maximize the amount of money a taxpayer keeps.

    For more on The Practice of Personal, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tuesday, February 17, 2009

    Make 4.8% on the Postage Increase for First Class Mail

    On May 11, 2009, the price for a 1st class 1-ounce stamp will increase from $0.42 to $0.44. However, Forever Stamps, regardless of when purchased, can continue to be used to mail 1-ounce letters after the price increase, without any additional postage.


    A simple way to earn 4.8% is to buy one year's worth of Forever Stamps on May 10, 2009 at $0.42 and use them in through mid-2010 when the postage is $0.44. The effective immediate earnings is $0.02 or 4.8%.


    Of course, no one is going to get rich doing this. However, if you are planning to still use the postal service after May 11, 2009, it's an easy way to save money. Besides, I don't know of any other investments that has a guaranteed 4.8% return :-)


    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Links To Carnivals From February 10 - 16, 2009

    Here are the Carnivals in which My Wealth Builder participated from February 10 - 16, 2009:

    Festival of Frugality #164

    Boomers and Seniors Blog Carnival

    Tax Carnival #48

    Carnival of Education

    For some interesting articles from the blogosphere, visit these Carnivals and give the hosts some recognition for their hard work.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial, retirement or tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Monday, February 16, 2009

    2/16/09 Stock Position Update - Not Down as Much as the Broader Market

    I continue to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. Since all the stocks have received sell signals, I'm no longer buying from the 7/7/08 buy list. I have also not taken any action on the 10/20/08 Buy List, which has received sell signals for 5 out of 5 of the stocks by 11/2/08. I finalized a new buy list on 1/12/09.

    The portfolio was down as market indices were down for the week. The holdings are down 3.1% from the previous week. The overall portfolio is down 26.3% and the remaining holdings are down 41.1%. The previous bottoms occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.

    For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 and 1/12/09 Buy List
    Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 2/13/09

    Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

    $58.17

    $38.62

    Potash (POT) [7/18/08]*10

    $215.09

    $86.06

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]*50

    $39.46

    $32.33

    Potash (POT) [7/24/08]*10

    $192.02

    $86.06


    *Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.

    At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock, except for Southwestern Energy, which appears on the new 1/12/09 buy list.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
    Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

    $38.10

    closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69


    I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.

    At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .

    On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling again to $3.23 on 11/21/08. It closed at $3.36 on 2/13/09. It's too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)

    The market continues to be choppy. All three indices are in bear market territory. As of the close on 2/13/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 7850.41, 1534.36, 826.84, still above the 2008 closing lows of 7552.29, 1316.12, and 752.44 , respectively. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are returns are -10.1%, -3.6% and -4.73% respectively year to date.

    Economists now acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. Also, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Sunday, February 15, 2009

    2/15/09 Bottom Fishing Portfolio - No Geithner Magic this Time

    On Friday, October 3, 2008, I couldn't resist the temptation of buying some stocks before the bailout vote. I bought shares of Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Monsanto (MON). I believed that these three banks will not only survive this financial crisis, but will be one the four major banking powers in the next year. Monsanto was down over 50% from its high and its seed and agricultural businesses are still very strong.

    As part of this portfolio, I have also been selling put contracts to open on specific stocks. I have been selling put contracts at one to two months from expiration on Monsanto and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER). I am currently short one option for Energy Conversion Devices.

    In December, 2008, I decided to buy some Ford (F) call options, to capitalize on a possibility of a rebound if Congress supports an auto industry bailout. Since the automaker bailout did not cause a large bounce for Ford, all the calls have expired worthless.

    I began thinking about buying some high dividend paying stocks, such as DuPont (DD), Pfizer (PFE) and Alcoa (AA), which are paying 6-7% dividends and are picks in the Dogs of the Dow system. However, after companies started cutting dividends, I've decided to not to use this strategy. For example, Bank of America, which was the top percentage dividend payer in the 2009 Dogs of the Dow selections, cut its dividend from $1.28 per year to $0.01 per year. Pfizer, also a top 5 2009 Dog, also cut its dividend in half.

    In hindsight, I bought the financial stocks way too early. I've learned my lesson. I will not purchase any more financial company stocks, until there is a more clear turnaround in the financial crisis of 2008. Of the three financial stocks, Bank of America has been the worst pick, being down 83.9%. I now believe there is a high probability Bank of America will not survive the financial crisis and economic downturn.

    My new strategy with financial stocks is to purchase 4 - 12 month out of the money call options. If financial stocks should recover significantly in the next year, I could make several hundred dollars. If there is no recovery, my losses are limited to the call purchase, which will be less than $200. For now, this strategy has worked well in limiting losses while allowing the portfolio to participate in the financial rallies.

    The portfolio was down 10.1% in the past week, versus a market fall of 10.1% in the Dow. Financial stocks fell due to the poor showing by the new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, which gave the markets zero confidence. Unfortunately, Mr Geithner learned that just showing up would not have a positive impact. The overall portfolio is down 44.41%, very near its low of -45.30% in December, 2008.

    Bottom Fishing Portfolio
    Stock or Option [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 2/13/09

    Bank of America(BAC) [10/3/08]100

    $38.00

    $5.57

    J.P. Morgan (JPM) [10/3/08]100

    $49.74

    $24.69

    Wells Fargo (WFC) [10/3/08]100

    $37.07

    $15.76

    Monsanto (MON) [10/3/08]50

    $88.97

    $79.41

    Ford Dec 5 call (FLA) [12/2/08]1000

    $0.078

    expired 12/20/08 at $0

    Ford Jan 7.5 call (FAU) [12/3/08]1000

    $0.088

    expired 1/16/09 at $0

    PNC May 45 call (PNCEI) [1/20/09]100

    $1.51

    $0.98

    PNC Jan 55 call (WYLAK) [1/20/09]100

    $1.71

    $1.90


    Currently, I have profited from all four put contracts which have been closed or allowed to expired. In January, I sold a February put contract short for Energy Conversion Devices and will consider doing the same for Monsanto if the market continues to decline.


    Put Contracts Sold Short to Open
    Option [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price on 2/13/09

    Monsanto Nov 60 put (MONWL) [10/3/08]100

    $2.39

    closed on 10/29/08 for $0.91

    Energy Conversion Nov 20 put (EQIWD) [11/12/08]100

    $0.69

    expired 11/21/08 at $0

    Monsanto Dec 40 put (MONXI) [11/20/08]100

    $1.19

    expired 12/20/08 at $0

    Energy Conversion Dec 17.5 put (EQIXW) [11/25/08]100

    $1.39

    expired 12/20/08 at $0

    Energy Conversion Feb 15 put (EQINC) [1/14/09]100

    $0.44

    $0.04



    It appears there may be a bear market rally in the next week. If these stocks should rally significantly, I will look to close out the long positions in the financial stocks.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I own shares of Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo and Monsanto shares. I am short an Energy Conversion Devices put contract and long PNC call contracts in our trading account. Alcoa and Pfizer shares are owned in our managed accounts.

    For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Saturday, February 14, 2009

    Inverse (Short) ETF Portfolio Update - 2/14/09

    The stock market is continues to be strange in early 2009. The market is volatile at unexpected times, e.g. after announcements by the Obama administration, and surprisingly calm in the face of bad news. I believe the market action indicates that it is nearing a bottom.

    To hedge against the market falling in November to December, 2008, I had purchased small positions of Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS), Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF) and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). These are inverse market index ETFs, meaning they rise when the market falls and vice versa.

    In mid January, 2009, I was able to sell the Ultrashort Financial Proshares and one lot of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares at a profit. The Ultrashort Financial Proshares continued to rise in mid January, going as high as $200 before falling back to $158.78 at the end of Janaury.

    In the past week, the two remaining inverse ETFs advanced as the broader market fell in anticipation of Congress passing a stimulus package. I will continue to hold these ETFs since there is a possibility of the market continuing to fall as the elements of the stimulus package are further analyzed..

    Hedging in a Volatile Market
    Inverse ETF [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 2/13/09

    Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). [11/21/08]100

    $38.21

    $24.50

    Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF)[12/11/08]20

    $118.99

    sold 10 shares at $140.33 on 1/14/09

    sold 10 shares at $165.95 on 1/16/09

    Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/11/08]20

    $81.64

    $68.76

    Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/17/08]20

    $62.62

    sold all shares at $66.82 on 1/14/09



    I purchased these ETF because I believed they would provide some protection if the market should fall. However, upon further investigation, I learned that these ETFs can fall even if the market index declines over time, due to the ETFs being based on the daily return of the index, which Proshares customer service confirmed when I asked them about my observation. The Motley Fool has a great explanation, with an example, of how these 2X inverse ETFs may not protect against a long term decline in the index.

    Based on my new learnings, I will not buy any other inverse ETFs and continue to unwind these positions, hopefully at a profit, but at a loss if needed. However, if the Ultrashort Financial Proshares ETF drops below $100, I may consider buying a new 20 share position, especially if I no longer own the Ultrashort Real Estate and the Ultrashort Oil & Gas ETFs.

    Lesson learned: Don't buy derivative investments when I don't fully understand how they work, as in the case of 2X inverse ETFs.

    Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own shares of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) , and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG).

    For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Friday, February 13, 2009

    My Lower Tolerance for Corporate Bureaucracy

    "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." Yogi Berra

    Since taking early retirement in 2007, I've been doing some seasonal part-time work. I took the job because the hours were flexible, the bureaucracy was relatively low, and I enjoyed doing the work. In theory, I wanted this work to be fun. In practice, it still was a corporate job.

    This year, I've observed a noticeable decrease in flexibility and increase in bureaucracy, which is causing a reduction in enjoying the work. Interestingly, when I talk to others, they comment that this is the trend they've seen over the past five, ten, twenty or thirty years that they have been employed on a seasonal part-time basis. "My gosh," I think, "I hope I don't put up with this for that long"

    My main bureaucracy complaint is that the corporate headquarters develops programs that sound good to management (theory), but are one notch below stupid when executed (practice) with the client, which is the interface I work. If I were king, I'd make corporate headquarters do their own campaigns, so they can personally experience the silliness of the execution, and create a much better program. Alas, since I'm not king, I plan to send a few e-mails to the management on how they can fix their programs.

    In theory, management would use my input to improve the program. In practice, I don't really expect to have any real impact, other than to have bland polite messages sent back to me like, "Thank you very much for your comments. We will be reviewing them with appropriate department and will call you with any questions." However, I will feel that I have made my concern known, instead of just complaining to my office colleagues.

    Fortunately, if the bureaucracy continues to get worse, I have the flexibility to choose not returning next year. Of course, they will also have the flexibility not to rehire me after reading the feedback I will provide :-)

    For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

    This is not financial, career or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Thursday, February 12, 2009

    The Mind Stays Young

    "Youth is wasted on the young." George Bernard Shaw

    To me, the hardest thing about getting older is that the mind ages much slower than the body. Although my body is older, weaker, slower and heavier, my brain still thinks my body is in its twenties. The physical disparity between one's twenties and forties or fifties is large but the mind doesn't seem to realize the difference.

    I work with a couple retired men in their sixties and socialize with a number of guys in their forties and fifties. Here's some examples of how the mind ages slower than the body:

  • Physical injuries. I've seen men in their forties get significant injuries from average physical exertion. On guy injured his shoulder from Wii boxing. A couple others injured their back and feet from playing tennis, and are out for the season. Recently, one guy tore his bicep tendon while pushing a car in the snow. Rarely, do I hear a twenty-something guy getting such an injury. However, these injuries almost seem common in the forty to fifty group.
  • Perception of the opposite sex. Men in their forties and fifties still find women in their twenties attractive, because their minds are still at that age. However, women in their twenties see men in their forties and fifties as being their dads' age. They'd probably think "ewww" if the older guys flirted with them.
  • Self image. I still see myself as a twenty to thirty year old, instead of the old guy that I really am. In some ways, I have maintained some youthfulness. I only weigh 7 pounds more than my freshmen year in college, have all my hair, and have only a few grey strands.
  • As a colleague once said, "I keep redefining the age for being old." Since turning forty, I haven't felt as old as I really was. And after turning 50 in 2008, I realized that I am much older than I feel. I don't think my mind will ever make it past the thirties. Hopefully, through exercise and healthy eating, I can slow down the aging of my body too :-)

    For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Friday Saturday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or aging advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Wednesday, February 11, 2009

    Reduce Spending without Sacrificing Lifestyle #3 - Take Advantage of Free

    We've started tightening our belts in the My Wealth Builder household. Our target is to reduce our annual expenditures by 5% without any reduction in our current lifestyle. Our first idea was to eliminate waste , i.e. money that's spent on goods and services but not effectively used. Our second idea is to buy below the regular price. Our third idea is to take advantage of free offerings. Here are some specific approaches:

  • Government services. There are many government services provided for free, because they are already paid for by tax dollars. The best example is the public library. We have an excellent library system and the nearest branch is only 2 miles from our house. Besides having a broad selection of books, video and audio items, they periodically have educational programs which are free to the public.

    While I haven't investigated all the free government services, here are a few others of which I am aware. Our local parks have free access to trails, tennis courts, volleyball courts, basketball courts, and skateboard arenas. Many areas have community centers that provide free programs for children, with swimming having an extra fee. In our region, the municipalities will usually fill out a city tax return for taxpayers for free. Also, when we were adopting a child, we were able to get a $2000 grant from our county, which is even better than free.


  • Perks from work. Many companies provide benefits which enable employees to get benefits for free. My company rents a local amusement park for employees, retirees and families as a yearly benefit. Admission is free, which includes the rides, but we need to pay for refreshments and games. In addition, employees and retirees receive a Christmas basket every year.

    Many companies provide tuition reimbursement, which covers the full cost of tuition and fees at accredited schools. Other perks may include meals while working or adoption assistance.

    I've just applied for a job at a park where all the recreational activities, e.g. golf, boating, fishing, etc. are free for employees.


  • Promotions. Many of the local establishments have regular or periodic promotions with free food. My favorite is the weekly happy hour where the restaurant serves free food from their appetizer menu. Of course, the drinks aren't free, but are usually discounted.

    Another example are the free samples of products that are occasionally offered when shopping. Also, I like to get free gifts for doing tasks I already like to do, e.g. taking a test drive.


  • Gifts. When family asks me about potential gifts, I usually try to think of something that I will be using over the next year. My usual response is a bottle of my favorite liquor.
  • One approach we haven't tried is taking advantage of the "free" items on Craigslist or Freecycle. However, we will offer items we no longer need to family and friends. Recently, we gave our Windows 2000 computer to my father-in-law since he needed a DOS capable system. Also, we gave a friend several ink cartridges for an old printer which he could still use. Finally, we gave my sister several down comforters since we can't use them due to allergies in our family. In every case, people were appreciative of getting the item(s) for free.

    For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tuesday, February 10, 2009

    Obama/Geithner Honeymoon Over - Perhaps a Buying Opportunity

    After 21 days in office, it seems the Obama administration honeymoon is over. The markets have indicated that more than hope, inspiration and campaign promises are needed. Investors are looking for detailed actions that have a good probability of delivering results. Neither the economic stimulus package nor Tim Geithner's speech offered any information that would give investors confidence.

    A silver lining is that the next few days may be a buying opportunity. I expect the Obama administration will learn from their mistake and return with a better approach in the next couple weeks. In the meantime, the markets will probably be volatile as it deals with the uncertainty of what may be done.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Links To Carnivals From February 3 - 9, 2009

    Here are the Carnivals in which My Wealth Builder participated from February 3 - 9, 2009:

    Festival of Frugality #163

    Carnival of Money Stories #95

    Money Hacks Carnival #50

    Carnival of Financial Planning

    Carnival of Personal Finance #191

    Festival of Stocks #127

    For some interesting articles from the blogosphere, check out these Carnivals and give the hosts some recognition for their hard work.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial, tax or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Monday, February 09, 2009

    Will the Market Respond Positively on Tuesday?

    The Senate economic stimulus bill has avoided a filibuster and is expected to pass. On Tuesday, the Treasury will announce the son of TARP. Based on what I've heard and read, neither program will do much to address the economic issues that we face. In my opinion, the economic stimulus package has little economic policy and contains mostly social policy and pork. And the son of TARP still doesn't seem to do enough to address the toxic assets on bank balance sheets.

    I would expect investors to be very disappointed and cause the stock market to decline on Tuesday.

    However, in the past year, I have been wrong 90% of the time on the market direction after a major event. There is no reason to expect my track record to change tomorrow So I am going to do a George Constanza "opposite". Simply, since I've been consistently wrong for the past year, then the opposite must be right :-) So, I will defer to the President Obama and Mr. Geithner effect and call for a market advance on Tuesday.

    If the market should rally, I will use the opportunity to sell some of our equity holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    2/9/09 Stock Position Update - A Big Up Week

    I continue to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. Since all the stocks have received sell signals, I'm no longer buying from the 7/7/08 buy list. I have also not taken any action on the 10/20/08 Buy List, which has received sell signals for 5 out of 5 of the stocks by 11/2/08.

    However, some of the metrics in the modified Unemotional Growth System indicate there may be a rally in the near term. I finalized a new buy list on 1/12/09.

    The portfolio was up even though the market indices were down for the week. The holdings are up 11.7% from the previous week. Both commodity and energy stocks advanced, with Potash gaining about $16. The overall portfolio is down 24.9% and the remaining holdings are down 39.2%. The previous bottoms occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.

    For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 and 1/12/09 Buy List
    Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 2/6/09

    Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

    $58.17

    $39.58

    Potash (POT) [7/18/08]*10

    $215.09

    $91.20

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]*50

    $39.46

    $32.73

    Potash (POT) [7/24/08]*10

    $192.02

    $91.20


    *Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.

    At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock, except for Southwestern Energy, which appears on the new 1/12/09 buy list.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
    Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

    $38.10

    closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69


    I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.

    At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .

    On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling again to $3.23 on 11/21/08. It closed at $4.14 on 2/6/09. It's too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)

    The market continues to be choppy. All three indices are in bear market territory. As of the close on 2/6/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 8280.59, 1591.71, 868.60, above the 2008 closing lows of 7552.29, 1316.12, and 752.44 , respectively. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are returns are -5.27%, 0.93% and -3.57% respectively year to date, with the Nasdaq going positive for first time this year. I believe the gains from last Friday will follow through this week.

    Economists now acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. Also, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC