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This year's Presidential election is the toughest one I've ever voted in. My dilemma is that I don't like either of the major pa...
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Continuing Education
I have a full load of courses. Starting this week, I will be going to classes every evening from Monday to Thursday until next summer. While I hope to find a next phase career from these courses, I know I will enjoy taking these courses whatever the outcome.
For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.
This is not financial, career or education advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Still Decompressing
- Getting comfortable with being unconnected. While I tossed the Blackberry on my last day of work, it took me 8 months before I stopped taking a laptop with me on vacations. On our last vacation, I was away from the Internet for 4 days, without any connection. When I was working, the longest I did was only a few hours of not being connected, not including sleeping
- Doing physical activity for fun. Throughout my childhood, I participated in two to three sports a year, because I enjoyed them. As I got older, sports became a scheduled activity for staying in shape. I am now starting to do sports again mainly for fun, instead of just for exercise.
- Being more spontaneous. I am now less constrained by a planned schedule. If our daughter is having a boring summer day, we'll decide that day to go to a water park. Last week, we decided to go camping a picked a weekend in September. Recently, a neighbor started calling to play tennis on the spur of the moment, because he knows I'm retired and like to play. Instead of being scheduled for other things, typically, I have been able to play within the hour.
- Reconnecting with old hobbies and interests. Over the past 20 years I've routinely set aside hobbies and interests in order to put more focus on my career. I had stopped being involved in 95% for my hobbies and interests, which included from stamp/coin collecting, model building, magic and small projects for the house. As I was reducing personal accumulation and came across the materials, I realized how much I missed them.
At this point, I am still spending too much time following our investments. The current volatility of the stock market has not enabled me to distance myself yet. When I am able to disconnect periodically from our investments, I will be on the way to complete decompression from working :-)
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Friday, August 29, 2008
Non-Financial Events that Could Negatively Impact my Retirement
While I don't worry about these possibilities too much, I do want to make sure I enjoy the fruits of early retirement. I'm used to planning for the future, and working hard in the present. Now that I'm retired, I will continue plan for the future, while completely enjoying the present.
For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.
This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Best Colleges for 2009
For more details, see the Best Colleges 2009 article at U.S. News & World Report.
For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.
This is not financial or education advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
My Simple Wealth Building Formula
When I first started working, my wealth building formula was:
Income - Spending = Savings (i.e. Wealth Accumulation)
My personal goal was to manage spending to be lower than income. Therefore, I would have some money leftover each month, and contribute that amount to my retirement savings.
After a while, I realized a small problem with this formula and approach. It implied that one should actively manage income and spending and the resulting outcome would be savings. So a large part of my wealth building effort was spent managing spending, since income was relatively constant. Also, since savings was the result, it sometimes could be zero or negative in some month.
Over time, I modified my wealth building formula to:
Income - Savings (i.e. Wealth Accumulation) = Spending
In this formula, savings also became relatively constant (at a percentage of income) since I could calculate how much was needed to retire. Savings was no longer the outcome. Spending now became the result, i.e. the money left over after managing income and savings.
Using this formula simplified our lives. First, I didn't need detailed budgets, since the amount for spending was determined by other factors. Second, every month, we knew we were making progress on our savings since we were paying ourselves first. Third, in hindsight, I realize that it caused me to shift my personal finance focus to significantly increasing income, since that was the main factor we could change in this formula.
For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
De-Accumulation Bonus
While reducing accumulation was great, there were were a few unexpected benefits from the effort:
Since I am de-accumulating my own belongings, I don't expect to re-discover anything of major value, even when we sell some items. However, I expect to enjoy reminiscing about the missing or forgotten items and my old childhood hobbies.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Links To Carnivals From August 25, 2008
Carnival of Personal Finance #167
Carnival of Family Life
Check out these carnivals for some interesting articles from around the blogosphere.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial or family advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Monday, August 25, 2008
8/25/08 Stock Position Update - Still Maintaining Positions
At this time, the holdings are up from last week but still not doing well. The overall portfolio has is down 6.1% and the remaining holdings are down 13.3%. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.
For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). On August 8, 2008, the system gave a sell signal for Williams Cos. and it has dropped off the buy list. The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).
Stock [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 8/22/08 |
Range Resources (RRC) [7/10/08] | 50 | $58.17 | $45.47 |
Potash (POT) [7/18/08] | 10 | $215.09 | $180.29 |
Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08] | 50 | $39.46 | $37.67 |
Potash (POT) [7/24/08] | 10 | $192.02 | $180.29 |
The rebound in oil and commodity prices has caused Range Resources, Southwestern Energy and Potash to rise this week. However, demand for gasoline and fertilizer is expected to keep falling and the bounce may be short lived. At this time, it appears that this portfolio is negatively correlated with the holdings by my financial advisor and my company stock.
At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks, but will make no additional purchases.
Stock [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price |
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08] | 100 | $38.10 | closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69 |
I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting.
On 8/22/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at $40.33, significantly lower than the close of the previous week at $56.30. It looks like I may have missed the opportunity to short Las Vegas Sands again. At this point, I plan to wait for it to rally before opening a short position again.
The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 8/22/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 10.8%, 8.96%, and 10.78% year to date. The three indices are still significantly above the second bottoms of 15.2%, 15.58%, and 14.63% in my 7/14/08 Stock Purchase Update.
I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.
For now, I will try to create a long and short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Range Resources, Hess, and Sears Holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Will Higher Tax Rates Create More Tax Revenue?
However, higher tax rates does not necessarily mean higher tax revenues.
An article in The Wall Street Journal titled You Can't Soak the Rich shares a concept called Hauser's law. Ken Hauser is an economist who published an interesting analysis of the U.S. tax system comparing tax collections, normalized to GDP, and top marginal tax rates. The article concludes that, "The data show that the tax yield has been independent of marginal tax rates over this period, but tax revenue is directly proportional to GDP." The reason is that higher tax rates cause more people to shield income from taxes.
I believe Hauser's law because it is based on actual data from 1950 through 2007. During that time, the highest tax rate declined from 91% to the present 35%. Yet, during that same time frame, tax revenues collected was a relatively stable 19.5% of GDP. Since GDP has been going up since 1950 , total tax revenue has also been increasing, even as the top tax rates were declining.
If we want to increase tax revenue, we need to increase GDP. The Wall Street Journal article further states, "Economists ... accept that a tax rate hike will reduce GDP," meaning higher tax rates will likely reduce tax revenue, if one believes Hauser's law.
It seems those advocating tax rate increases do not believe in Hauser's law. The next four years will prove whether Hauser is or the proponents of a tax rate increase are correct.
For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Saturday, August 23, 2008
2008 Presidential Nomination Conventions
While I typically do not engage in Presidential elections this early, I am looking forward to watching the nominating conventions this year. The Democrats will hold theirs from August 25-28, 2008 and the Republicans will have theirs from September 1-4, 2008. Since the conventions are highly scripted events, it is unlikely there will be any new revelations or surprises. However, I hope to hear more details on both candidate's platforms.
At this point, I think the election is Obama's, to either win or lose. His organization runs an excellent campaign, as demonstrated in the primaries. But McCain is not out of the race yet. The polls currently show a tightening margin between Obama and McCain.
It will be interesting to see which candidate, if any, gains significantly after the conventions are complete.
For more on Reflections and Musings , check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or political advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Friday, August 22, 2008
Considering Retirement? - Think How Much Then When
We used both approaches, a self assessment and using a financial planner. With the self assessment, we estimated that we needed to save about 16 times of my gross salary.
Our financial advisor provided a balanced analysis, i.e. both the best cases and the worst cases. We decided we needed income equal to 100% of our pre-retirement after tax income. With that as a base, our financial planner ran different scenarios, e.g. paying off the mortgage, various life expectancies, saving for education, social security, etc. Based on his analyses, we increased our savings target to 20 times gross salary.
Knowing our target savings amount was helpful for our retirement planning. Although we had originally planned to retire in our mid-fifties, we achieved our target savings earlier than expected in 2007. Thus, we were able to retire earlier than originally planned.
For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.
This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Men's Age In Their Minds
I guess 31 to 32 is even a little old for me. I used to tell friends that I'm don't feel much different from when I was 18 years old, with the main difference being much more responsibility, and a bit more money. Okay, and more maturity:-) Here are some of the areas that I see being the same:
However, there are major changes from those youthful times. Physically, I am no longer an 18 year old. Although my mind wants to compete like I'm that young, my body is no longer capable. Even trying can lead to injury. And when a waitress flirts with me now, she probably sees someone who is her dad's generation :-)
For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.
This is not financial or aging advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
A Quick Way to Value a Small Business
For reference, cash flow is defined as the total of profit, depreciation, amortization, interest and owner's draw. All this information is easily obtainable from the owner's tax return, and it is common practice to request copies of the most recent three year's of returns during the due diligence phase. In financial terms, cash flow is related to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), which also adds back taxes paid.
Interesting, the broker shared that most small business owners will claim that tax returns don't represent the true earnings potential of their business. A common reason is that the current owner may have optional expenses, such as travel to conferences, higher end business vehicles or hiring of family members, that don't have to be incurred by a new business owner. While the reason may be accurate, banks will still only accept the financial information on a tax return for determining loan amounts.
While the valuation of a business seems to be complicated, I now have a good point from which to consider whether the price is reasonable or not. I can now do a quick analysis and confirmation of the market value of business and know whether a seller is listing too high. In addition, I know to watch out for statements such as "can have higher sales with right owner," which may mean the price is based on potential and not current cash flow. On the other hand, by comparing the cash flow to similar businesses, I can determine if the current business is underperforming and has more potential with a knowledgeable owner.
For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Choosing a New Furnace and Air Conditioner
Here's what we considered when making our decision:
Finally, we contracted the work with the company that had installed a furnace and air conditioner in a previous house. From that experience, I knew they would have reasonable costs and do excellent work.
At this point, we are very satisfied with the air conditioning choice. Using the same set point as last summer, we are more comfortable than with the previous system. It is hard to compare the cost savings since this summer has been much cooler that last year. We'll have to wait until winter to do a comparison on our furnace choice.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial or home maintenance advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Monday, August 18, 2008
8/18/08 Stock Position Update - No Changes
At this time, the holdings are not doing well. The overall portfolio has fallen 9.7% and the remaining holdings are down 18.3%, which is up slightly from last week's update. The only positive has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.
For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).
Stock [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 8/15/08 |
Range Resources (RRC) [7/10/08] | 50 | $58.17 | $43.26 |
Potash (POT) [7/18/08] | 10 | $215.09 | $169.81 |
Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08] | 50 | $39.46 | $35.18 |
Potash (POT) [7/24/08] | 10 | $192.02 | $169.81 |
The fall in oil and commodity prices has caused Range Resources, Southwestern Energy and Potash to continue declining this week. Apparently demand for gasoline and fertilizer is expected to keep falling. At this time, it appears that this portfolio is negatively correlated with the holdings by my financial advisor and my company stock.
At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks, but will make no additional purchases.
Stock [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price |
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08] | 100 | $38.10 | closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69 |
I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting.
On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at $56.30, significantly higher than 7/11/08 probably due to short covering. I will likely short Las Vegas Sands again once this rally weakens.
The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 8/15/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 10.3%, 7.53%, and 10.4% year to date. The three indices are significantly above the second bottoms of 15.2%, 15.58%, and 14.63% in my 7/14/08 Stock Purchase Update.
I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.
For now, I will try to create a long and short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Range Resources, Hess, and Sears Holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Voting Independent or Not at All
I'm sending Congress a message that I'm tired of their wasteful spending and I, as a citizen and voter, am not going to take it anymore. In a business, people resign, or are fired, if issues like the recent financial crisis happened on their shift, e.g. Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch. In my opinion, people in elected offices accountable and be voted out for poor performance.
The trouble is that, often, the opposing candidate from a major party is no better. To me, most Democrat and Republican candidates are typically poor in fiscal responsibility, with the choice often being the lesser of two evils. However, this year, I refuse to vote for either the Democrat or Republican candidate. Based on my observations, candidates from major parties have little fiscal restraint, are significantly influenced by lobbying money, and are in the business of getting re-elected, instead of governing well.
This year, I am giving serious consideration to voting for an independent congressional candidate. If there is a viable independent candidate who had demonstrated fiscal responsibility, not accepted lobby money and would vote "no" for bills with earmarks, that candidate would get my vote.
Unfortunately, there probably aren't enough viable independents running in 2008 to make a difference. The challenge is that a significant number of districts would need to have viable independent candidates to cause large enough change to have impact. Perhaps this will happen in 2010, since I don't expect the economic and international situations to be any better by then.
For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Do You Know a Millionaire?
The World Wealth Report, by Capgemni for Merrill Lynch, is about individuals with a net worth of at least $1 million in assets, not including a primary residence. Using information from this report, Wikipedia summarized the number of millionaires in the following table.
Individuals with more than $1 million in 2006 | ||
---|---|---|
Region | Number | Percentage |
Global | 9,500,000 | 0.15% |
North America | 3,000,000 | 0.62% |
Europe | 2,900,000 | 0.41% |
Asia-Pacific | 2,600,000 | 0.06% |
Latin America | 400,000 | 0.07% |
Middle East | 300,000 | N/A |
Africa | 100,000 | 0.01% |
Based on this table, North America has the highest ratio of millionaires with 1 out of 16o people being a one. Europe has the second highest ratio with 1 out of 240 being a millionaire. So if you live in one of these regions, you've probably met a millionaire.
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Friday, August 15, 2008
Keeping More of MY Money
Because calculating estimated taxes is similar to doing one's taxes, I already have an indication of how much I will pay in taxes in 2008. Here are some of the interesting statistics (well, interesting to me, at least).
These statistics were very interesting. While I was working, I would never have considered reducing my income to reduce taxes. However, I now realize that I was working about 100 times harder for that additional income, only to have a significant portion wasted, in my opinion, by those in Congress.
Thus, for now, I am happily making less and paying less taxes to support what I consider wasteful spending by Congress, such as earmarks, bailouts and constant income redistribution.
For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.
This is not financial, tax or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Sorting a Lifetime of Accumulation
Last week, we began clearing the house and hopefully sell it in the spring of 2009. It has been an interesting process, one in which I learned more about my parents and myself with respect to belongings.
Here are the insights I had:
- Most paperwork saved is not useful. My dad preferred having a paper trail for most of his activities. An great benefit was that we have been able to find all the important documents, such as trust papers, copies of deeds, and tax records. However, we sorted through at least a hundred times more paper that was shredded and discarded, e.g. old account statements, paid bills, and receipts.
However, reviewing six years of documents did have a benefit. I was able to reconstruct and understand more about my dad's investment strategies and results. It was almost as if he were there explaining his investments to me. - Even frugal people may have too much of some stuff. My parents were great savers and didn't spend money on many things. Even so, there were two areas that my parents had more than overstocked, clothing and health supplements. In these areas, we were giving away items that were used or unopened.
- Use treasured items during one's lifetime. Throughout our childhood, my parents saved and bought several things they treated with great care (i.e. used infrequently) including living room furniture, dining room furniture and fine china. We have rarely used any of these items and will need to sell or give away some of the items.
- Pass on heirlooms early. Over their lifetime, my parents were very good about passing along family heirlooms and their history. The only remaining items were pictures, a few pieces of jewelry and a piano, which we plan to keep.
- Sentimental is valuable. As we sorted through their belongings, we felt the most attachment to items with a memory related to our parents. We will keep their diplomas, awards, and other personal memorabilia.
These insights have caused me to rethink how I manage my belongings. Admittedly, I probably save too much documentation, and have too much of certain items such as supplies for new projects and books. I think it's time to reduce my saved documentation and complete projects or book before acquiring more.
For more on Crossing Generations, check back Thursdays for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Happy Blogiversary - Two Years Old
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For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Links To Carnivals From August 9 - 11, 2008
Carnival of Financial Planning
Carnival of Personal Finance #165
Carnival of Twenty Something Finances (link TBD)
For more Ideas You Can Use, check back Tuesday for the next segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Monday, August 11, 2008
8/11/08 Stock Position Update - Ugly is an Understatement
At this time, the holding are not doing well. The overall portfolio has fallen 11.1% and the remaining holdings are down 20.2%, during a time the S&P has been rising. The only positive has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.
For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).
Stock [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 8/8/08 |
Range Resources (RRC) [7/10/08] | 50 | $58.17 | $41.80 |
Potash (POT) [7/18/08] | 10 | $215.09 | $171.51 |
Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08] | 50 | $39.46 | $32.56 |
Potash (POT) [7/24/08] | 10 | $192.02 | $171.51 |
The fall in oil and commodity prices has caused Range Resources, Southwestern Energy and Potash to continue declining this week. Apparently demand for gasoline and fertilizer is expected to keep falling.
At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks, but will make no additional purchases.
Stock [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price |
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08] | 100 | $38.10 | closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69 |
I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting.
On 8/11/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at $50.95, significantly higher than 7/11/08 probably due to short covering. I will likely short Las Vegas Sands again once this rally weakens.
The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 8/8/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 10.18%, 8.98%, and 10.6% year to date. The three indices are significantly above the second bottoms of 15.2%, 15.58%, and 14.63% in my 7/14/08 Stock Purchase Update.
I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.
For now, I will try to create a long and short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Range Resources, Hess, and Sears Holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Negotiating Prices
Here's my recent experience with Internet and health club providers:
I think it's a great time to negotiate with providers where there is lots of competition or where demand is low. However, some businesses in our area (e.g. top home repair companies) seem to have more business than normal and do not need to offer discounts.
For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for the segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Saturday, August 09, 2008
An Ivy League Degree Means More Pay on Average
The article begs the question of whether the cost of an Ivy League education is worth the future income difference. In my experience, while the differences are true on average, the disparity does not necessarily exist on an individual. In my experience as a manager, people with Ivy League degrees on average make more than many of their colleagues with non Ivy League degrees. However, the salary difference is due to advancing further in the company. On the other hand, I've seen many individuals from non Ivy League schools advance further than their Ivy League colleagues, resulting in higher salaries.
My assessment? The biggest factor is probably the individual, and an Ivy League education can help, if one can afford the cost.
For more on Reflections and Musings , check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or education advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Friday, August 08, 2008
Early Retiree Health Insurance
It seems that businesses and companies now realize good affordable health insurance is an opportunity to help people who retire early. Retiree Health Access is a program that is working with businesses and insurance companies to create large pools of early retirees that can help keeping health insurance costs affordable. According to the article, if employees qualify for the plan, they won't be turned down due to health status.
If successful, this sounds like a program that can help more people choose early retirement.
For more on Reaping the Rewards Reflections , check back every Friday for a new segment.
This is not financial, insurance or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Thursday, August 07, 2008
How to Handle a Parent's Belongings
Recently, Liz Pulliam Weston wrote How to get rid of your folks' stuff on MSN.com. The article covered a range of topics, including family relationships, vetting what to keep and what to give away or sell, and looking valuables in hiding places.
Fortunately, since there are only two children, we don't have many issues in for family relationships. However, there are several other suggestions I found useful. Specifically, in the first round, we plan to do the following:
This will be a good start. However, I expect it will take a few trips and a couple weeks of work to complete the task. Hopefully, if the real estate market improves, we'll be able to sell their house in the spring of 2009.
For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.
This is not financial or family advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
A 60/40 Approach to Budgeting Money
For reference, the percentages do not apply to earlier years, because we evolved over time to this allocation and I no longer have the records to track previous years. However, this allocation has became habit. Even in retirement, we are routinely spending about the same amount as the 60% for livings expenses when I was working.
For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Our Internet Provider Reduced the Monthly Charge
Of course, I called and the provider informed me that I could get a price reduction to $30/month. Here was the gist of the conversation:
"Any other fees?" I asked, expecting a one time charge.
"No."
"Any contracts, or other requirements?" I asked.
"No."
"It's a price reduction with no requirements?" I checked.
"Yes."
"This sounds like a no brainer answer. Is there any reason I shouldn't accept?" I questioned, with a bit of disbelief.
"No."
"The why do you need to ask?," I queried.
"We're required to ask the customer before making any change."
I checked with a friend later that week and he didn't get any offer to reduce monthly fees from the same provider. I wonder if it's because I've been periodically calling and asking if they will match the introduction cost of new broadband providers. Hmmm....
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Links To Carnivals From August 2 - 4, 2008
Carnival of Finanical Planning
Carnival of Family Life
Festival of Stocks #100
For some interesting reading from the blogosphere, check out the articles in these Carnivals.
This is not financial or family advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
For more Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new sement.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Monday, August 04, 2008
8/4/08 Stock Position Update - No New Purchases or Shorts Last Week
For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).
Stock [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 8/1/08 |
Range Resources (RRC) [7/10/08] | 50 | $58.17 | $49.01 |
Potash (POT) [7/18/08] | 10 | $215.09 | $201.06 |
Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08] | 50 | $39.46 | $36.32 |
Potash (POT) [7/24/08] | 10 | $192.02 | $201.06 |
The fall in oil and material prices has caused Range Resources and Potash to decline slightly this week. Southwestern Energy rose slightly.
Stock [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price |
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08] | 100 | $38.10 | closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69 |
I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting.
The market continues to be choppy. As of the close on 8/1/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 13.4%, 12.87%, and 13.14% year to date. Two of the three indices are significantly below the previous respective lows of 9.37%, 16.58% and 11.86% in my 3/17/08 Stock Purchase Update. In addition, all three indices have been in bear market territory.
I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.
For now, I will try to create a long and short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Range Resources, Hess, and Sears Holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Sunday, August 03, 2008
Wealth Creation and Accumulation
"Yes, they have more money." -- Ernest Hemingway
Recently, I had an epiphany about becoming wealthy. Building wealth consists of two different activities: 1) creating and accumulating wealth and 2) maintaining wealth. The first part has to be achieved by an individual through their own actions. The second part can be handled by professionals since managing wealth is a skill.
My realization? Creating and accumulating wealth is partially dependent on luck, which no one controls. Simply, there are no cookbook steps, no genetic aptitude and no predictable way to creating wealth. It is a unique combination of the personal drive of an individual with the right activities and a bit of luck. Perhaps, that's why it is hard (impossible) to teach someone to create wealth and, perhaps, that's why many people only are successful at doing it once or in one way.
Of course, there are some critical elements, before luck can help. In my opinion, the elements for successful wealth building include:
- A good idea. It all starts with a good idea, but not necessarily a great idea. After the fact, sometimes some ideas appear obvious. For example, Starbucks, Dell Computers, and Microsoft all started with a good idea that made the founders very rich.
- Focus. This often includes concentrating personal and financial resources on the idea, which by definition is high risk. Rarely do individuals become very wealthy through diversification. They become rich in their own business, working for a company or investing in a few stocks.
Of course, concentration is a two edged sword. It can quickly reduce one's wealth in bad times, e.g. Enron and Bear Stearns. - Bringing the idea to life. Good strategy, excellent execution, hard work, and persistence are some of the elements to make an idea happen. An idea not implemented is nothing. As Thomas Edison once said, " Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration."
- Luck. Finally, I believe there is an element of being in the right place at the right time, whether that is previously unseen opportunity or the markets are now receptive. This element is not controllable. I've seen individuals deliver the first three parts, but have circumstances go against them, resulting in failure.
For example, an investor could have hypothetically become very wealthy in 2003 to 2005 flipping real estate. Using the same idea and doing the work in 2006 to 2008, would have yielded poor results.
For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Managing Wealth is a Skill
Maintaining wealth is a skill, a process that can be learned. That's why people with less wealth than their clients can competently manage the wealth of the rich or super rich. In my experience, maintaining wealth is about:
- Maximizing return with low relative risk. The classic approach is diversification of asset classes such as equities, fixed income, real estate and hard assets. Within each asset class there can also be further diversification.
- Preserving capital on an inflation adjusted basis. Although the markets will fluctuate short term, it is important to ensure the investments grow long term at a rate fast than inflation. In addition to asset diversification, controlling varying withdrawal rates for different market conditions can help. For example, withdrawing less when the portfolio is down can minimize principal loss.
- Minimizing taxes and expenses. Keep more of one's wealth by paying less on one's earnings. Knowing the tax code and finding low investement costs are two opportunities
There are known and proven techniques for doing each of these elements. Someone knowledgeable in these techniques and good implementation skills can competently maintain wealth for those that already have achieved it.
On the other hand, creating and accumulating wealth is different than managing wealth. More on that topic tomorrow.
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Friday, August 01, 2008
My Retirement Award
The choices were numerous. As a retiree, I could order any retirement gift or a gift from the previous service year awards (e.g. 5, 10, 15 ... years). The choices included watches, jewelry, luggage, telescopes, cameras, and household furnishings. In the past, I had generally chosen something fun and useful -- coasters, and a compact fishing rod were some of my previous choices.
There were hundreds of choices and I was torn between something fun and useful, or an item of recognition. In the end, I chose an award that does both, a clock for our dining room. The clock was useful, fun (since I could display items in it) and came with a brass plate acknowledging my retirement and years of service.
The award arrived last week and the manufacturer dispatched a service representative to unpack and set up the clock. Overall, the clock was an excellent choice. I get to see it everyday as a reminder of my first career, but it doesn't stand out as an award since it blends in with the other furniture.
For more on Reaping the Rewards Reflections, check back every Friday for a new segment.
This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC