It would be great if retirees received a predictable inflation adjusted monthly payment that covered all one's expected and discretionary expenses.
- Predictable
- Inflation Adjusted
- Expenses
Unfortunately, there isn't an option that meets all the criteria.
- Predictable - The options usually are fixed or the inflation adjustment doesn't deliver enough. Annuities or long term bonds have predictable fixed payments, which meets one criteria. However, they don't increase with inflation, nor do they necessary cover increasing expenses with aging.
- Inflation adjusted - Social Security payments are "inflation adjusted," but do not necessarily cover the items that retired people need. TIPS bonds are inflation adjusted and theoretically, so are equities, but neither are guaranteed.
- Expenses - The reality is living expenses will grow and new health and aging care expenses will be grow more than expected as on gets older.
- Predictable - Buying 20 year Treasuries yielding 5%. I've stopped for now but will buy more if yields rise to 6-7%.
- Inflation adjusted - Social security, rental property, TIPS bonds, and equities. Social security, rents and TIPS are broadly inflation adjusted, but don't necessarily match cost increases experienced by and individual. Equities have downside risks but do rise in the long term and provide an inflation cushion.
- Expenses - We purchased long term care insurance when I was in my 20s and later for my spouse in her 30s when we got married, when premiums were much less expensive. We also have retiree health care insurance from my company and Medicare (me) which has more coverage and is less expensive than the ACA health insurance. Finally, we have saved for our children in college 529 plans from the time we adopted them. We expect to 100% cover their college expenses for both our 21 year old and 14 year old.
But as Yogi Berra once said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." We have covered what we can control as best we can, and will have to adjust for elements we don't control such as inflation, the economy, stock market volatility and health.
This is not financial, investment, nor retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
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