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Outcome Bias -YMMV

Our brains look for patterns especially patterns that appear to result in success. We assume that successful outcomes result from taking cer...

Friday, April 03, 2026

Experimented with Investment Strategies

In late January 2018, I started testing investment strategies for our retirement accounts.  I tried both index investing and choosing individual stocks.

Here's an headline summary of the strategies I tried:
  • International Index
  • S&P 500 Index
  • Growth Index
  • Value Index
  • Dividend Stocks
  • Bitcoin Related Stocks
  • Smallcap Biotech Stocks
  • Midcap Biotech Stocks
  • Momentum Stocks
  • REIT Stocks
  • Trading Fallen Stocks
  • Trading Rising Stocks
I ended the test in 2024.  Although, I did a quantitative analysis, I am giving a qualitative summary below.
  • My overall return was positive but not a large positive.  Although some strategies lost money, most other strategies were positive and made up for the loss.
  • My biggest losing strategy was Trading Fallen Stocks.  I learned that most falling stocks keep falling or don't recover. Unfortunately, I held on to losing stocks instead of cutting my losses early.
  • I had a few big wins, but I sold many gains too early for small gains of 10-20% when some would have returned very big gains if I had held.  TSLA was one example that I sold too early instead of holding.
  • I did not do better than just investing in the S&P index.  In fact, I didn't come close.
  • It was way too much time and effort to manage individual stock portfolio when buying the index did much better for almost no time and effort beside making the purchase.
As a result, going forward, I will be investing mainly in the S&P index and holding for the equity part of our accounts.  I will still trade some individual stocks, but these will be mostly vibe/bet investments that attempt to make a small profit, for a little fun and excitement.  

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment. 

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Thursday, April 02, 2026

Mailed in Hardcopy Tax Returns This Morning

When I was working, I usually applied for an automatic extension to October.   That only extended the filing date and did not extend paying taxes owed, which were still due on April 15. Thus, I had a rough draft of the return already done.  However, I usually procrastinated to confirm the calculations and then do the tedious job of filling out the forms and making copies.   

The worst part was by October, the next tax season was almost over and I would have to start doing taxes again.  In addition, my spouse also objected to waiting so long to file, but I had the excuse of work.

After retiring, I continued to file the automatic extension and file by October since I didn't receive a refund.  However, about 10 years ago I started getting a refund due to over withholding and I started filing on or before April 15 to get the refund.  Now I get ready to file as early late January, but I usually need to wait for some 1099 forms that arrive in late February.

Nowadays, I can be ready to file by mid March, which means we can get our refund in April.  This year, I didn't mail the hard copy returns until today, which means we'll probably get our refund in May.  I filed one state return electronically and hope to receive the refund in a couple weeks.

For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial, tax, nor tax filing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Lottery Jackpots: Then and Now

I remember when lotteries had the first million dollar jackpot in the 70s. That was big, becoming an instant millionaire.   Back then a million was BIG bucks.     

Fast forward 50 years.   Big jackpots are now $1 billion, which is really BIG bucks.  Even when it's split, it's still a lot of money for the winner.

I wonder what jackpots may be 50 years from now.   Maybe $1 trillion.   Woohoo!   


For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor gambling advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Speaking of Taxes

I finished doing our taxes yesterday:  Federal and 2 states.  I still do and file taxes the old fashion way, by hand, although I use Excel to do all the calculations.  I used to fill in the forms by hand too.  However, last year, I started using the PDF fill in forms since the IRS was cut back and stopped mailing form in time to complete a tax return by April 15.  Do returns with the PDF fill in forms made inputting the info much easier since errors can be easily changed and reprinted, versus rewriting the entire form.

We're getting a HUGE federal refund which I am not particularly proud of since I prefer to get a little as possible or even owe a little.  I don't like the idea of the government using my money without paying interest for most of the year.

I filed one state electronically and will put the Federal and one state a tax return in the mail by end of week. 

I've already started managing income and withholding for our 2026 tax returns.  The new Trump tax breaks are reducing our tax liability significantly if I take some action, though not as much as eliminating taxes on Social Security, which was promised.   Still I'm getting some helpful tax breaks, which I plan to maximize over the next three years.

 I still have to do my daughter's tax return, but that is relatively easy.  I had her file an "exempt" W4 for federal withholding since she is in college and earns below the single standard deduction and, therefore, has no federal income tax liability.   Unfortunately, our state doesn't allow "exempt" withholding except for a few limited cases.   However, she gets a 100% refund from the state.   Interestingly, my state allows me to file for her electronically with her permission, which she will gladly give me.   Better than going to one of the big three tax prep companies, which probably would charge a couple hundred bucks for a very simple return.  I just expect a "thank you" for my 10 minutes of effort.

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday  for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Who Pays the Majority of Income Taxes

It shouldn't be a surprise that the rich pay most of the federal income taxes.   According to The rich pay majority of U.S. income taxes, the top 10% paid 72% of income taxes in 2022, up from 55% in 1986. The next 59% paid the remaining 28% of income taxes and 31% paid zero federal income taxes.

In some countries, the tax on the wealthy is very high.  Tax on some wealthy French  sometimes top 100 percent of income.

Disclosure:  This is not an April Fool's post.

For more on  The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every  Wednesday  for a new segment.
This is not financial nor tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Plant Grass in the Fall and Do Spot Weed Control in the Spring

I start preparing out grass for the Spring in the late Fall of the previous year.   I over seed my lawn in September with starter fertilizer.   In addition, I put winter fertilizer down by October.   While I don't see any benefits immediately, I get an awesome lawn the next Spring.   At that time, I also do spot broad leaf weed control, making our lawn even more awesome.  I prefer spot weed control over using fertilizer with weed control since it is applied only to the weed and not to the entire lawn.

My neighbors sometimes ask me who does our lawn service since it looks so good.  I proudly tell them I do the lawn service, except for  mowing, myself.  I confess, I use a mowing service since it saves me about 3 hours a week for our yard.

For more on  Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor lawn service advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Today would be my Dad's 100th Birthday

Yes, my dad would be 100 today if he were alive.   I miss him lots.    He always made sure I had the best equipment for every sport I played. He supported me for the costs of going to an Ivy League school.  He's the reason I followed in his footsteps and became a chemical engineer.  He showed me how to be a great father.

I didn't show my appreciation enough when he was alive.  I should have thanked him and my mom more. I was lucky to have them as my parents.  I wouldn't be where I am today without their great support.

Thanks Dad and Mom.  

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every  Tuesday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor family advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Monday, March 30, 2026

Striving to be Volatility Agnostic

Maintaining consistent monthly income is my current strategy for our retirement savings.  My goal is to maintain a specific income range, no matter what the stock market is doing, especially when it is declining.  To do this, I am investing in fixed income (CDs, bonds, and mutual funds) and dividend stocks, and reducing dependence on gains in stocks.  In addition, we have monthly Social Security payment and a quarterly distribution from a rental property.

Up until the end of 2025, the strategy has been working, but it has been mainly an advancing market.   Now, the test will be in a declining volatile market at is happening currently.  I'll see now if the "monthly paycheck" can be maintained in 2026.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

This is not financial, investment, nor fixed income  advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Controlling Lesser Celandine and Garlic Weeds

Lesser celandine is one of the toughest broadleaf weeds to eliminate, other than using glyphosate (commonly known as Roundup) which I don't like to use since eliminates desirable plants too.   Last year, I found a broadleaf weed killer (Bonide Brush Killer) that works on lesser celandine that does not damage the grass. Last year, it cut back some patches, but did not eliminate completely since I applied it late in the growth cycle.  I will be using it again this year, but earlier.

Bonide Brush Killer also did work well on completely eliminating garlic, which has been plaguing one area for many years, since no other weed killer worked without also killing the grass.

Disclosure:  I received no compensation from Bonide for writing this post.

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial, grass care, nor broadleaf weed elimination advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Saturday, March 28, 2026

TIL: Amish is a Religion

We visited Amish country and took a tour of the area.   It was very interesting and I learned a lot about Amish life.

First, I always assumed that Amish was only about simple way of life, i.e. no modern conveniences such as electricity, and powered tools/appliances.  WRONG.   I learned Amish is a religion.   There are four sects, each with differing rules.   For example, one sect is allowed to use e-bikes.

Second, I learned that the Amish are self sufficient.   The residents farm and or have cottage businesses, e.g. roofing, woodworking, that are needed in the community.  The Amish support each others business within the community.

Third, I learned the Amish don't buy or have any insurance.   The community comes together and helps those that need it.   For example, someone's barn burned down.  The community rebuilt the barn and put it up in three days.   

Fourth, I learned the Amish buggies are different and all the same for each of the four Amish sects.  Some buggies don't have rear view mirrors, while others do.  Some have flashing reflector lights, other don't. All buggy accessories are determined by the bishop of each sect.

Fifth, I learned the Amish legally end education at 8th grade and are allowed by a Supreme court decision in their favor, Wisconsin vs. Yoder.  Each Amish neighborhood will have a parochial school in the neighbor hoods since the students walk to school.

Finally, I learned that despite the commitment to simplicity, some modern amenities are slowly allowed into some sects.   For example, one sect is allowed to have e-bikes.  What is allowed and not allowed is determined and approved by the bishop.

I was impressed by the culture of the Amish.   There are some aspects, e.g. self sufficiency and community support of others, that would be beneficial in any society.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial, society, nor culture advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC