The S&P is up about 4.5% this week and 12.3% since the March 30, 2026 low. This also marks the third week of over 3% gains. In addition, the S&P has made 53 record highs so far in 2026, versus a yearly average of 18 record highs. Woohoo!
Normally, after three weeks of substantial gains like this, I would expect a pullback as people take profits. However, these aren't normal times. I expect the reaction will be also based on Iranians confirming on or denying whether tankers are being freely allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, any posts, positive or negative, by President Trump or Iran over the weekend will have impact.
Net, my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the net will be a decline at the open due to profit takers. Then, I expect a buy the dip event midday, especially if there is a positive post by President Trump. Then FOMO may happen as investors on the sidelines decide the rally will continue.
Here's what I'm going to do:
- Continue to hold our core investments: Stock and Bond Index Mutual Funds, Stock and Bond Index ETFs, Individual stocks with Big Gains, Large Lots of Speculative Stocks.
- Continue to sell off peripheral stock investments that have only a few shares as they become profitable.
- Hold buy the dip software stocks for now and take profits periodically.
- Avoid buying any new stock positions.
- Buy some fixed income with 5, 10, and 15 year maturities to lock in 4-5% interest rates.
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial, stock investment, nor investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
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