Sunday, October 14, 2018

Lots of Fear and No Exuberance

This continues to be the most unloved bull market ever. 

Almost everywhere in the market has the smell of fear.   Fear of  rising interest rates.   Fear of declining corporate earnings.   Fear of geopolitical events.   Fear of recession.   Fear of being invested in the market.    In fact, the amount of fear is more indicative of a market bottom than a market top.

On the other hand,  there is almost no exuberance.  No excitement about stocks.  No excitement about being invested.   No stories of fortunes being made on investments.   The reality is that no one seems interested any more. 

I know more people getting out of the stock market than adding funds.   From a contrarian perspective, this probably signals the beginning of a new advance and not the beginning a of significant decline.

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This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Saturday, October 13, 2018

The End ... or The Beginning?

I am getting more concerned about a significant decline in the stock market occurring.  Part of the concern is data based due negative market trend of the past two weeks.   However, I admit part of the concern is emotional since our only income is based on investment returns.  So any declines in our investments are causing anxiety.

The rational part of me says stay invested in the market.   The economy is good and there are no reasons to expect an imminent recession.   The decline is a correction and the market will likely begin another advance.

The emotional part of me says I need to protect my retirement savings.   Having lived through the 08/09 bear market market, I don't want to risk such a loss again, which was about 40-50%.  The decline may be the beginning of a brutal bear market.

So is this the end of a great bull market or the beginning of the next leg up?  Right now I am torn and can go either way.  We'll see how this week goes.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial, investment or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC