Monday, February 09, 2009

Will the Market Respond Positively on Tuesday?

The Senate economic stimulus bill has avoided a filibuster and is expected to pass. On Tuesday, the Treasury will announce the son of TARP. Based on what I've heard and read, neither program will do much to address the economic issues that we face. In my opinion, the economic stimulus package has little economic policy and contains mostly social policy and pork. And the son of TARP still doesn't seem to do enough to address the toxic assets on bank balance sheets.

I would expect investors to be very disappointed and cause the stock market to decline on Tuesday.

However, in the past year, I have been wrong 90% of the time on the market direction after a major event. There is no reason to expect my track record to change tomorrow So I am going to do a George Constanza "opposite". Simply, since I've been consistently wrong for the past year, then the opposite must be right :-) So, I will defer to the President Obama and Mr. Geithner effect and call for a market advance on Tuesday.

If the market should rally, I will use the opportunity to sell some of our equity holdings.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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