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This year's Presidential election is the toughest one I've ever voted in. My dilemma is that I don't like either of the major pa...
Saturday, February 28, 2009
The Story of Two Envelopes
The new CEO turned the company around and had several good years. However, soon afterwards the company had a crisis, that couldn't be solve quickly. The new CEO's job was at risk, and then he remembered the advice from the previous CEO. He found the envelopes and opened the first one. Inside, there was a note," Blame it on your predecessor."
The CEO immediately called a press conference and blamed the woes of the company on his predecessor. The CEOs job was saved. The company recovered and returned to prosperity. The CEO was elected Business Leader of the Year. The CEO made a mental to open the second envelope when needed in the future.
After couple more good years, an economic downturn occurred again. Once again the company's fortunes turned for the worse and their was talk of replacing the CEO. Remembering how the first envelope had saved his career, the CEO opened the second envelope with great hope.
In it was another short note, " Make two envelopes."
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
Photo Credit: morgueFile.com, Jane M. Sawyer
This is not financial or career advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Inverse (Short) ETF Portfolio Update - 2/28/09
To hedge against the market falling in November to December, 2008, I had purchased small positions of Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS), Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF) and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). These are inverse market index ETFs, meaning they rise when the market falls and vice versa.
In mid January, 2009, I was able to sell the Ultrashort Financial Proshares and one lot of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares at a profit. In the past week, the two remaining inverse ETFs advanced again as the broader market fell in response to the Obama administration's budget proposal, which includes bigger government, more spending and higher taxes. I will continue to hold these ETFs since there is a possibility of the market continuing to fall as the elements of the stimulus package and budget proposal are further analyzed.
Inverse ETF [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/27/09 |
Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). [11/21/08] | 100 | $38.21 | $30.50 |
Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF)[12/11/08] | 20 | $118.99 | sold 10 shares at $140.33 on 1/14/09 sold 10 shares at $165.95 on 1/16/09 |
Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/11/08] | 20 | $81.64 | $80.34 |
Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/17/08] | 20 | $62.62 | sold all shares at $66.82 on 1/14/09 |
I purchased these ETF because I believed they would provide some protection if the market should fall. However, upon further investigation, I learned that these ETFs can fall even if the market index declines over time, due to the ETFs being based on the daily return of the index, which Proshares customer service confirmed when I asked them about my observation. The Motley Fool has a great explanation, with an example, of how these 2X inverse ETFs may not protect against a long term decline in the index.
Based on my new learnings, I will not buy any other inverse ETFs and continue to unwind these positions, hopefully at a profit, but at a loss if needed. However, if the Ultrashort Financial Proshares ETF drops below $100, I may consider buying a new 20 share position, especially if I no longer own the Ultrashort Real Estate and the Ultrashort Oil & Gas ETFs.
Lesson learned: Don't buy derivative investments when I don't fully understand how they work, as in the case of 2X inverse ETFs.
Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own shares of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) , and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG).
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Friday, February 27, 2009
T.G.I.F. - This has been a long week
Individually, none of the elements was a issue. It was the occurrence of all of them during the same week that made it challenging. Hopefully, being old is not the real reason :-) At this point, I expect next week will be easier as I get over the cold, have only two evening commitments for the week, and cut back on my strength training for a couple weeks.
For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.
Photo Credit: morgueFile.com, RAYWAL65
This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Successful Dieting Really Hasn't Changed
According to Calorie Counters Have It Right, Diet Study Says in The Wall Street Journal, a National Institute of Health (NIH) study showed that weight loss correlated most with the amount of calories eaten. Participants were put on one of four diets that had 750 calories less than they needed per day. After two years, participants lost an average nine pounds and two inches in their waist, no matter which diet they used.
Bottom line: No matter the diet, what's really important is restricting the calories. In one way, nothing has really changed about dieting in 25 years. On the other hand, we now know there are endless food options, as long as we reduce the calories.
For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.
This is not financial or health advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Reduce Spending without Sacrificing Lifestyle #5 - Enjoy What You Already Have
Writing this post has helped me remember that there are lots of entertainment opportunities that somehow aren't fully used by us in our daily lives. Since we already have them, we can reduce spending by just using them more often :-)
For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.This is not financial or entertainment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Will this Week be a Buying or Selling Opportunity?
As I've written before, I have a very poor record in predicting the market direction after a major event. Most recently, I took an "opposite" approach and predicted the markets would advanceafter Mr. Geithner's press conference on February 9, 2009, even though my instincts said market decline. Well, my instincts were correct that time, increasing my percentage of wrong predictions.
This time, I'm going with my instincts and predicting that the markets will fall after their respective speeches. Here are the reasons:
- Insufficient Details. I expect the speeches to be big on vision, high on inspiration and low on details. That will scare investors since there will be no clear understanding on how seemingly opposite results can be achieved simultaneously. For example, the stimulus bill just passed seems to be loaded with pork and deficit spending. At the same time, President Obama plans to cut the deficit in half by 2013, through the magic of technological efficiency. The concept of "then a miracle occurs" is not sufficient detail for the stock market :-)
- Not Addressing the Real Problem. Just about everybody acknowledges that the root cause of the problem are toxic mortgage securities that continue to decline in value. However, very little has been done to eliminate the toxic securities, i.e. have the government buy them. I expect the speeches will continue to have actions that do everything but deal directly with these toxic assets.
- Bigger Government. I expect President Obama's vision to include bigger government, including more health care, more wealth transfer, and more green, under the guise of more effective and efficient use of resources. The stock market will probably remember the efficiency with which government just made the transfer to digital broadcasts on February 17, 2009.
If the speeches follow the outline above, I expect the market to fall and it will be a buying opportunity. However, Messers Obama and Geithner can include a detailed plan that is viewed as having potential to return to economic growth, I expect the markets will rally, offering me a selling opportunity to exit my investments in financial stocks.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
What I Hope to Hear from President Obama and Secretary Geithner this Week
This week, President Obama and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be speaking again on the state of the economy and financial crisis. Hopefully, this time they will provide some specific plans and solutions to address the issue. I'm tired of hearing about how difficult, complicated and complex the problem is and how it will take two, no maybe three Presidential terms to deliver the solution.
Personally, I think the solution is straightforward. People have acknowledged that the overwhelming issue is the holding of toxic mortgage securities by financial institutions. Take those securities off the books of financial institutions, make them healthy once again and let them get back to the business of lending money. So the answer is: The U.S. government should buy the toxic mortgage securities and hold them to maturity. This would bring a quick end to the financial crisis and restore confidence.
OK, it's not my great idea. The solution of buying toxic assets was the basis for getting approval for $700 billion of TARP funds. Somehow, none to the money was used to buy toxic assets, because it was too difficult to do. In the meantime, the toxic assets deteriorated further, bringing the economy to its knees, and requiring an additional $787 billion stimulus package. And still the government is not buying the toxic securities.
No one has said that the government buying toxic securities won't work. Everyone has said that it's too hard to do. I hope that President Obama and Secretary Geithner will decide to do what's needed, instead of continuing the rhetoric of complexity, doom and gloom.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Links to Carnivals from February 17 - 23, 2009
Festival of Frugality #165
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Monday, February 23, 2009
Tim Geithner - Act II
Whatever the outcome from this press conference, I plan to sell the three financial stocks, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo, which I own in my Bottom Fishing Portfolio. This weekend my spouse reminded me that although I have called financial stocks toxicin November, 2008, I have not acted on this perspective because the financial stocks are still in our account. Thus, no matter what direction the financial stocks move, I will sell them in the next couple weeks and reinvest the funds into stocks like Monsanto, Amazon or Energy Conversion Devices, which are all above their November 21, 2008 lows.
Hopefully, Mr Geithner's performance and message will be much better than in Act I, for his sake, the economy's sake and the stock market's sake.
Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own all the mentioned stocks, except Energy Conversion Devices, in our personal trading account.
For more on Strategy and Plans, check back every Monday Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
2/23/09 Stock Position Update - Down as Dow Reaches 6 Year Low
The portfolio was down as market indices were down for the week. The holdings are down 10.4% from the previous week, due primarily to energy stock declines. The agricultural stock, Potash, only fell 2.5% The overall portfolio is down 30.8% and the remaining holdings are down 47.3%. The previous bottoms occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.
For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.
Stock [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/20/09 |
Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]* | 50 | $58.17 | $33.17 |
Potash (POT) [7/18/08]* | 10 | $215.09 | $83.96 |
Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]* | 50 | $39.46 | $27.63 |
Potash (POT) [7/24/08]* | 10 | $192.02 | $83.96 |
*Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.
At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock, except for Southwestern Energy, which appears on the new 1/12/09 buy list.
Stock [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price |
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08] | 100 | $38.10 | closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69 |
I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.
At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .
On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling again to $3.23 on 11/21/08. It closed at $2.60 on 2/20/09. It's too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)
The market continues to be choppy. All three indices are in bear market territory. As of the close on 2/20/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 7365.67, 1441.23, 741.02. The Dow fell below the 2008 closing low of 7552.29 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still above their respective 2008 closing lows of 1316.12, and 752.44 , respectively. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are returns are -14.38%, -8.51% and -13.36% respectively year to date.
Economists now acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. I plan to trickle in around 25% of the funds this week. However, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Sunday, February 22, 2009
2/22/09 Bottom Fishing Portfolio - Nationalization Talk Massacres Financial Stocks
As part of this portfolio, I have also been selling put contracts to open on specific stocks. I have been selling put contracts at one to two months from expiration on Monsanto and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER).
In December, 2008, I decided to buy some Ford (F) call options, to capitalize on a possibility of a rebound if Congress supports an auto industry bailout. Since the automaker bailout did not cause a large bounce for Ford, all the calls have expired worthless.
I began thinking about buying some high dividend paying stocks, such as DuPont (DD), Pfizer (PFE) and Alcoa (AA), which are paying 6-7% dividends and are picks in the Dogs of the Dow system. However, after companies started cutting dividends, I've decided to not to use this strategy. For example, Bank of America, which was the top percentage dividend payer in the 2009 Dogs of the Dow selections, cut its dividend from $1.28 per year to $0.01 per year. Pfizer, also a top 5 2009 Dog, also cut its dividend in half.
In hindsight, I bought the financial stocks way too early. I've learned my lesson. I will not purchase any more financial company stocks, until there is a more clear turnaround in the financial crisis of 2008. Of the three financial stocks, Bank of America has been the worst pick, being down 90.03%. I now believe there is a high probability Bank of America will not survive the financial crisis and economic downturn.
My new strategy with financial stocks is to purchase 4 - 12 month out of the money call options. If financial stocks should recover significantly in the next year, I could make several hundred dollars. If there is no recovery, my losses are limited to the call purchase, which will be less than $200. For now, this strategy has worked well in limiting losses while allowing the portfolio to participate in the occasional financial rallies.
The portfolio was down 13.8% in the past week, versus a market fall of 10.1% in the Dow. Financial stocks fell due the talk of nationalization of banks and the lack of any plan specifics to address the financial from the Treasury department. On the other hand, Monsanto was flat in a week the indices were down up to 6.63%. The overall portfolio is down 50.65%, falling below the previous low of -45.30% in December, 2008.
Stock or Option [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/20/09 |
Bank of America(BAC) [10/3/08] | 100 | $38.00 | $3.79 |
J.P. Morgan (JPM) [10/3/08] | 100 | $49.74 | $19.90 |
Wells Fargo (WFC) [10/3/08] | 100 | $37.07 | $10.91 |
Monsanto (MON) [10/3/08] | 50 | $88.97 | $79.68 |
Ford Dec 5 call (FLA) [12/2/08] | 1000 | $0.078 | expired 12/20/08 at $0 |
Ford Jan 7.5 call (FAU) [12/3/08] | 1000 | $0.088 | expired 1/16/09 at $0 |
PNC May 45 call (PNCEI) [1/20/09] | 100 | $1.51 | $0.45 |
PNC Jan 55 call (WYLAK) [1/20/09] | 100 | $1.71 | $1.50 |
Currently, I have profited from all five put contracts which have been closed or allowed to expired. I will continue to sell put contracts on Energy Conversion Devices and Monsanto.
Option [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price on 2/20/09 |
Monsanto Nov 60 put (MONWL) [10/3/08] | 100 | $2.39 | closed on 10/29/08 for $0.91 |
Energy Conversion Nov 20 put (EQIWD) [11/12/08] | 100 | $0.69 | expired 11/21/08 at $0 |
Monsanto Dec 40 put (MONXI) [11/20/08] | 100 | $1.19 | expired 12/20/08 at $0 |
Energy Conversion Dec 17.5 put (EQIXW) [11/25/08] | 100 | $1.39 | expired 12/20/08 at $0 |
Energy Conversion Feb 15 put (EQINC) [1/14/09] | 100 | $0.44 | expired 2/19/08 at $0 |
It's clear to me that the financial stocks will not likely recover in the near future. If these stocks should rally significantly, I will look to close out the long positions in the financial stocks.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I own shares of Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo and Monsanto shares. I am long PNC call contracts in our trading account. Alcoa and Pfizer shares are owned in our managed accounts.
For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Hero or Zero?
Unfortunately, but not unexpected, there are many more zeroes than heroes nowadays. Hopefully, the proportion will change when we decide it's time to reward responsibility and to stop rewarding irresponsible behavior.
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial, political or policy advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Inverse (Short) ETF Portfolio Update - 2/21/09
To hedge against the market falling in November to December, 2008, I had purchased small positions of Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS), Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF) and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). These are inverse market index ETFs, meaning they rise when the market falls and vice versa.
In mid January, 2009, I was able to sell the Ultrashort Financial Proshares and one lot of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares at a profit. The Ultrashort Financial Proshares continued to rise in mid January, going as high as $200 before falling back to $158.78 at the end of Janaury.
In the past week, the two remaining inverse ETFs advanced as the broader market fell in response to government actions and inactions to solve the financial crisis. I will continue to hold these ETFs since there is a possibility of the market continuing to fall as the elements of the stimulus package are further analyzed.
Inverse ETF [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/20/09 |
Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). [11/21/08] | 100 | $38.21 | $28.69 |
Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF)[12/11/08] | 20 | $118.99 | sold 10 shares at $140.33 on 1/14/09 sold 10 shares at $165.95 on 1/16/09 |
Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/11/08] | 20 | $81.64 | $72.28 |
Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/17/08] | 20 | $62.62 | sold all shares at $66.82 on 1/14/09 |
I purchased these ETF because I believed they would provide some protection if the market should fall. However, upon further investigation, I learned that these ETFs can fall even if the market index declines over time, due to the ETFs being based on the daily return of the index, which Proshares customer service confirmed when I asked them about my observation. The Motley Fool has a great explanation, with an example, of how these 2X inverse ETFs may not protect against a long term decline in the index.
Based on my new learnings, I will not buy any other inverse ETFs and continue to unwind these positions, hopefully at a profit, but at a loss if needed. However, if the Ultrashort Financial Proshares ETF drops below $100, I may consider buying a new 20 share position, especially if I no longer own the Ultrashort Real Estate and the Ultrashort Oil & Gas ETFs.
Lesson learned: Don't buy derivative investments when I don't fully understand how they work, as in the case of 2X inverse ETFs.
Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own shares of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) , and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG).
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Now Another Reason to Owe Taxes Instead of Getting a Refund
The economic crisis of 2008 has given me another good reason. Two states, California and Kansas, temporarily stopped issuing tax refunds due to a budgetary crisis. So even though the money rightfully belongs to the taxpayer (since it is overpayment of taxes), the state is refusing to issue a refund, because of it didn't manage its budget properly. Sheesh.
Another example of why I don't want government handling, spending, or holding money that is rightfully mine.
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Friday, February 20, 2009
Renaissance Man
Here's house the courses have been useful to me so far:
Taking the course also gave me the confidence to rewire our gas stove, which I shorted out when I spilled a pot of water on the switches. In addition, I have been able differentiate original wiring from added wiring, and know that the additions were done correctly.
Estimated savings: $200
Savings: $5000
Estimated savings: $300
Hopefully, I will get as much benefit out of the remaining courses. Tentatively, I'm investigating becoming a part time real estate agent. The course should help me make a better decision. The travel and tourism course will hopefully provide some insight into that business.
For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.
This is not financial, home repair, or career advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Being Prepared Helps Avoid a Choking Incident
Recently, I had the opportunity to use something I never expected to need, the Heimlich maneuver. It happened one evening, while the family was watching TV. Our four year old daughter was eating a piece of chewy candy and started coughing. I asked her if she was OK, but she could barely manage a whisper. I anxiously asked her to say something to me, and she barely could wheeze out a couple words.
Although she appeared OK, I decided to grab her and gently used the Heimlich maneuver. After the second squeeze, a small piece of candy popped into her mouth. I took it out, intending to throw it away. However, our daughter wasn't going to give up a piece of candy and wanted to continue eating it. I gave it back to her, with instructions to let it melt in her mouth, and she finished it without incident. We finished our evening activities and put her to bed.
While I felt I did the right thing, I wasn't really sure that I had helped. However, later that week, our daughter told my spouse that the candy had made it hard for her to breath, i.e. she really had been close to choking. So I'm glad I did what I did.
In the words of Mastercard, price of being prepared by learning the Heimlich maneuver - $0. The value of executing it correctly - priceless.
For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.
This is not financial or health advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Reduce Spending without Sacrificing Lifestyle #4 - Be Choiceful on Options
A common marketing tactic is to get consumers to trade up with additional options or features and, therefore, pay a higher price. While some options may be worthwhile, we are making a conscious effort to choose only the options we need in any upcoming purchases
I admit that I have purchased cars with many of these options. However, I've now think that leather upholstery and a premium audio system may be better options for our home versus a car. For my most recent vehicle purchase, in 2003, I bought the base level truck, i.e. manual transmission, air conditioning, and cassette/radio. Even though it doesn't have any options, it gets me from point A to B as fast as any loaded luxury vehicle on the road.
We typically take higher deductibles when insuring our home contents and automobiles. I will be reviewing the deductible limits again since it has been five years since we purchased our house and cars. It may be worth dropping collision on our automobiles.
Finally, we never buy extended warranties on any products we purchase. If it isn't made well enough to last past the one year warranty, then I would prefer not to buy it :-)
Of course, if I get an option at no additional cost, as I did with a free Ipod, I am happy to accept it:-)
Overall, we are already very choiceful when deciding about options. Our main opportunity is to review our insurance choices to determine if there are possible savings.
For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.
This is not financial or insurance advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tax Cuts in Stimulus Bill - Who Gets Help
Here's my brief summary of the tax cut benefits for individuals by income level:
However, instead of providing a rebate check, as was done in 2008, the plan is to reduce withholding in 2009 and provide the reconcile the credit in the 2009 tax return.
In addition, there is an $8,000 refundable tax credit for first-time home buyers who purchase from January 1 to November 30, 2009. The tax credit phases out for individuals earning more than $75,000 and couples earning more than $150,000.
For more on The Practice of Personal, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.
This is not financial or tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Make 4.8% on the Postage Increase for First Class Mail
A simple way to earn 4.8% is to buy one year's worth of Forever Stamps on May 10, 2009 at $0.42 and use them in through mid-2010 when the postage is $0.44. The effective immediate earnings is $0.02 or 4.8%.
Of course, no one is going to get rich doing this. However, if you are planning to still use the postal service after May 11, 2009, it's an easy way to save money. Besides, I don't know of any other investments that has a guaranteed 4.8% return :-)
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Links To Carnivals From February 10 - 16, 2009
Festival of Frugality #164
Boomers and Seniors Blog Carnival
Tax Carnival #48
Carnival of Education
For some interesting articles from the blogosphere, visit these Carnivals and give the hosts some recognition for their hard work.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial, retirement or tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Monday, February 16, 2009
2/16/09 Stock Position Update - Not Down as Much as the Broader Market
The portfolio was down as market indices were down for the week. The holdings are down 3.1% from the previous week. The overall portfolio is down 26.3% and the remaining holdings are down 41.1%. The previous bottoms occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.
For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.
Stock [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/13/09 |
Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]* | 50 | $58.17 | $38.62 |
Potash (POT) [7/18/08]* | 10 | $215.09 | $86.06 |
Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]* | 50 | $39.46 | $32.33 |
Potash (POT) [7/24/08]* | 10 | $192.02 | $86.06 |
*Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.
At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock, except for Southwestern Energy, which appears on the new 1/12/09 buy list.
Stock [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price |
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08] | 100 | $38.10 | closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69 |
I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.
At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .
On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling again to $3.23 on 11/21/08. It closed at $3.36 on 2/13/09. It's too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)
The market continues to be choppy. All three indices are in bear market territory. As of the close on 2/13/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 7850.41, 1534.36, 826.84, still above the 2008 closing lows of 7552.29, 1316.12, and 752.44 , respectively. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are returns are -10.1%, -3.6% and -4.73% respectively year to date.
Economists now acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. Also, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Sunday, February 15, 2009
2/15/09 Bottom Fishing Portfolio - No Geithner Magic this Time
As part of this portfolio, I have also been selling put contracts to open on specific stocks. I have been selling put contracts at one to two months from expiration on Monsanto and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER). I am currently short one option for Energy Conversion Devices.
In December, 2008, I decided to buy some Ford (F) call options, to capitalize on a possibility of a rebound if Congress supports an auto industry bailout. Since the automaker bailout did not cause a large bounce for Ford, all the calls have expired worthless.
I began thinking about buying some high dividend paying stocks, such as DuPont (DD), Pfizer (PFE) and Alcoa (AA), which are paying 6-7% dividends and are picks in the Dogs of the Dow system. However, after companies started cutting dividends, I've decided to not to use this strategy. For example, Bank of America, which was the top percentage dividend payer in the 2009 Dogs of the Dow selections, cut its dividend from $1.28 per year to $0.01 per year. Pfizer, also a top 5 2009 Dog, also cut its dividend in half.
In hindsight, I bought the financial stocks way too early. I've learned my lesson. I will not purchase any more financial company stocks, until there is a more clear turnaround in the financial crisis of 2008. Of the three financial stocks, Bank of America has been the worst pick, being down 83.9%. I now believe there is a high probability Bank of America will not survive the financial crisis and economic downturn.
My new strategy with financial stocks is to purchase 4 - 12 month out of the money call options. If financial stocks should recover significantly in the next year, I could make several hundred dollars. If there is no recovery, my losses are limited to the call purchase, which will be less than $200. For now, this strategy has worked well in limiting losses while allowing the portfolio to participate in the financial rallies.
The portfolio was down 10.1% in the past week, versus a market fall of 10.1% in the Dow. Financial stocks fell due to the poor showing by the new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, which gave the markets zero confidence. Unfortunately, Mr Geithner learned that just showing up would not have a positive impact. The overall portfolio is down 44.41%, very near its low of -45.30% in December, 2008.
Stock or Option [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/13/09 |
Bank of America(BAC) [10/3/08] | 100 | $38.00 | $5.57 |
J.P. Morgan (JPM) [10/3/08] | 100 | $49.74 | $24.69 |
Wells Fargo (WFC) [10/3/08] | 100 | $37.07 | $15.76 |
Monsanto (MON) [10/3/08] | 50 | $88.97 | $79.41 |
Ford Dec 5 call (FLA) [12/2/08] | 1000 | $0.078 | expired 12/20/08 at $0 |
Ford Jan 7.5 call (FAU) [12/3/08] | 1000 | $0.088 | expired 1/16/09 at $0 |
PNC May 45 call (PNCEI) [1/20/09] | 100 | $1.51 | $0.98 |
PNC Jan 55 call (WYLAK) [1/20/09] | 100 | $1.71 | $1.90 |
Currently, I have profited from all four put contracts which have been closed or allowed to expired. In January, I sold a February put contract short for Energy Conversion Devices and will consider doing the same for Monsanto if the market continues to decline.
Option [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price on 2/13/09 |
Monsanto Nov 60 put (MONWL) [10/3/08] | 100 | $2.39 | closed on 10/29/08 for $0.91 |
Energy Conversion Nov 20 put (EQIWD) [11/12/08] | 100 | $0.69 | expired 11/21/08 at $0 |
Monsanto Dec 40 put (MONXI) [11/20/08] | 100 | $1.19 | expired 12/20/08 at $0 |
Energy Conversion Dec 17.5 put (EQIXW) [11/25/08] | 100 | $1.39 | expired 12/20/08 at $0 |
Energy Conversion Feb 15 put (EQINC) [1/14/09] | 100 | $0.44 | $0.04 |
It appears there may be a bear market rally in the next week. If these stocks should rally significantly, I will look to close out the long positions in the financial stocks.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I own shares of Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo and Monsanto shares. I am short an Energy Conversion Devices put contract and long PNC call contracts in our trading account. Alcoa and Pfizer shares are owned in our managed accounts.
For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Inverse (Short) ETF Portfolio Update - 2/14/09
To hedge against the market falling in November to December, 2008, I had purchased small positions of Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS), Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF) and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). These are inverse market index ETFs, meaning they rise when the market falls and vice versa.
In mid January, 2009, I was able to sell the Ultrashort Financial Proshares and one lot of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares at a profit. The Ultrashort Financial Proshares continued to rise in mid January, going as high as $200 before falling back to $158.78 at the end of Janaury.
In the past week, the two remaining inverse ETFs advanced as the broader market fell in anticipation of Congress passing a stimulus package. I will continue to hold these ETFs since there is a possibility of the market continuing to fall as the elements of the stimulus package are further analyzed..
Inverse ETF [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/13/09 |
Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG). [11/21/08] | 100 | $38.21 | $24.50 |
Ultrashort Financial Proshares (SKF)[12/11/08] | 20 | $118.99 | sold 10 shares at $140.33 on 1/14/09 sold 10 shares at $165.95 on 1/16/09 |
Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/11/08] | 20 | $81.64 | $68.76 |
Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) [12/17/08] | 20 | $62.62 | sold all shares at $66.82 on 1/14/09 |
I purchased these ETF because I believed they would provide some protection if the market should fall. However, upon further investigation, I learned that these ETFs can fall even if the market index declines over time, due to the ETFs being based on the daily return of the index, which Proshares customer service confirmed when I asked them about my observation. The Motley Fool has a great explanation, with an example, of how these 2X inverse ETFs may not protect against a long term decline in the index.
Based on my new learnings, I will not buy any other inverse ETFs and continue to unwind these positions, hopefully at a profit, but at a loss if needed. However, if the Ultrashort Financial Proshares ETF drops below $100, I may consider buying a new 20 share position, especially if I no longer own the Ultrashort Real Estate and the Ultrashort Oil & Gas ETFs.
Lesson learned: Don't buy derivative investments when I don't fully understand how they work, as in the case of 2X inverse ETFs.
Disclosure: At the time of publication, I own shares of the Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS) , and Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares (DUG).
For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Friday, February 13, 2009
My Lower Tolerance for Corporate Bureaucracy
Since taking early retirement in 2007, I've been doing some seasonal part-time work. I took the job because the hours were flexible, the bureaucracy was relatively low, and I enjoyed doing the work. In theory, I wanted this work to be fun. In practice, it still was a corporate job.
This year, I've observed a noticeable decrease in flexibility and increase in bureaucracy, which is causing a reduction in enjoying the work. Interestingly, when I talk to others, they comment that this is the trend they've seen over the past five, ten, twenty or thirty years that they have been employed on a seasonal part-time basis. "My gosh," I think, "I hope I don't put up with this for that long"
My main bureaucracy complaint is that the corporate headquarters develops programs that sound good to management (theory), but are one notch below stupid when executed (practice) with the client, which is the interface I work. If I were king, I'd make corporate headquarters do their own campaigns, so they can personally experience the silliness of the execution, and create a much better program. Alas, since I'm not king, I plan to send a few e-mails to the management on how they can fix their programs.
In theory, management would use my input to improve the program. In practice, I don't really expect to have any real impact, other than to have bland polite messages sent back to me like, "Thank you very much for your comments. We will be reviewing them with appropriate department and will call you with any questions." However, I will feel that I have made my concern known, instead of just complaining to my office colleagues.
Fortunately, if the bureaucracy continues to get worse, I have the flexibility to choose not returning next year. Of course, they will also have the flexibility not to rehire me after reading the feedback I will provide :-)
For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.
This is not financial, career or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Thursday, February 12, 2009
The Mind Stays Young
To me, the hardest thing about getting older is that the mind ages much slower than the body. Although my body is older, weaker, slower and heavier, my brain still thinks my body is in its twenties. The physical disparity between one's twenties and forties or fifties is large but the mind doesn't seem to realize the difference.
I work with a couple retired men in their sixties and socialize with a number of guys in their forties and fifties. Here's some examples of how the mind ages slower than the body:
As a colleague once said, "I keep redefining the age for being old." Since turning forty, I haven't felt as old as I really was. And after turning 50 in 2008, I realized that I am much older than I feel. I don't think my mind will ever make it past the thirties. Hopefully, through exercise and healthy eating, I can slow down the aging of my body too :-)
For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Friday Saturday for a new segment.
This is not financial or aging advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Reduce Spending without Sacrificing Lifestyle #3 - Take Advantage of Free
While I haven't investigated all the free government services, here are a few others of which I am aware. Our local parks have free access to trails, tennis courts, volleyball courts, basketball courts, and skateboard arenas. Many areas have community centers that provide free programs for children, with swimming having an extra fee. In our region, the municipalities will usually fill out a city tax return for taxpayers for free. Also, when we were adopting a child, we were able to get a $2000 grant from our county, which is even better than free.
Many companies provide tuition reimbursement, which covers the full cost of tuition and fees at accredited schools. Other perks may include meals while working or adoption assistance.
I've just applied for a job at a park where all the recreational activities, e.g. golf, boating, fishing, etc. are free for employees.
Another example are the free samples of products that are occasionally offered when shopping. Also, I like to get free gifts for doing tasks I already like to do, e.g. taking a test drive.
For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Obama/Geithner Honeymoon Over - Perhaps a Buying Opportunity
A silver lining is that the next few days may be a buying opportunity. I expect the Obama administration will learn from their mistake and return with a better approach in the next couple weeks. In the meantime, the markets will probably be volatile as it deals with the uncertainty of what may be done.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Links To Carnivals From February 3 - 9, 2009
Festival of Frugality #163
Carnival of Money Stories #95
Money Hacks Carnival #50
Carnival of Financial Planning
Carnival of Personal Finance #191
Festival of Stocks #127
For some interesting articles from the blogosphere, check out these Carnivals and give the hosts some recognition for their hard work.
For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.
This is not financial, tax or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
Monday, February 09, 2009
Will the Market Respond Positively on Tuesday?
I would expect investors to be very disappointed and cause the stock market to decline on Tuesday.
However, in the past year, I have been wrong 90% of the time on the market direction after a major event. There is no reason to expect my track record to change tomorrow So I am going to do a George Constanza "opposite". Simply, since I've been consistently wrong for the past year, then the opposite must be right :-) So, I will defer to the President Obama and Mr. Geithner effect and call for a market advance on Tuesday.
If the market should rally, I will use the opportunity to sell some of our equity holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC
2/9/09 Stock Position Update - A Big Up Week
However, some of the metrics in the modified Unemotional Growth System indicate there may be a rally in the near term. I finalized a new buy list on 1/12/09.
The portfolio was up even though the market indices were down for the week. The holdings are up 11.7% from the previous week. Both commodity and energy stocks advanced, with Potash gaining about $16. The overall portfolio is down 24.9% and the remaining holdings are down 39.2%. The previous bottoms occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.
For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.
Stock [purchase date] | Shares | Purchase Price | Price on 2/6/09 |
Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]* | 50 | $58.17 | $39.58 |
Potash (POT) [7/18/08]* | 10 | $215.09 | $91.20 |
Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]* | 50 | $39.46 | $32.73 |
Potash (POT) [7/24/08]* | 10 | $192.02 | $91.20 |
*Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.
At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock, except for Southwestern Energy, which appears on the new 1/12/09 buy list.
Stock [short date] | Shares | Short Price | Price |
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08] | 100 | $38.10 | closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69 |
I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.
At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .
On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling again to $3.23 on 11/21/08. It closed at $4.14 on 2/6/09. It's too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)
The market continues to be choppy. All three indices are in bear market territory. As of the close on 2/6/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 8280.59, 1591.71, 868.60, above the 2008 closing lows of 7552.29, 1316.12, and 752.44 , respectively. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are returns are -5.27%, 0.93% and -3.57% respectively year to date, with the Nasdaq going positive for first time this year. I believe the gains from last Friday will follow through this week.
Economists now acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. Also, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.
Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.
For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.
This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
Copyright © 2009 Achievement Catalyst, LLC