Waiting for Extreme Carnage Before Buying

"To the pain..." ~ Westley from The Princess Bride

I'm itching to buy, but I'm going to wait.

In 2013 (the tape tantrum) and 2016 (worst start to S&P in history), I started buying right away and endured a month of further decline.  Then for Brexit and the Trump election, I waited and missed the immediate rebound of 2 days and 6 hours.

I expect this time the decline will be longer and more drawn out for the following reasons:

• The Fed is raising interest rates.   
• Trump's honeymoon fading fast.  And Trump is running out of items that can be dealt with by executive order.
• Too many stocks are near 52 week lows despite the indices being near all time highs.
• The low bar of expectations for Trump is rising.
• Obamacare repeal and replace proposal disappointingly is really Obamacare tweak and refine.  
• And the Fed is raising interest rates.

So I will wait for the market to become painful before buying.  Currently, I'm thinking of a 20% decline before doing most of my buying.  However, if a reversal occurs before 20% is reached, I may start buying.

Hopefully, I will be able to buy low.

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This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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