Saturday, April 14, 2018

Risky Business

"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."  ~ Yogi Berra

Who knows where the market is headed.  Certainly not me.  The market is extremely volatile and schizophrenic.  To me, there are three strategies one can take in this uncertain market.

  1. Buy and Hold.  As one of my favorite bosses said, "This too shall pass."    Since the market inevitable goes up, just buy stocks and good companies and hang on to them.   Eventually, this strategy will pay off.
  2. Trade the Dips and Rallies.  It seems to me that the market declines when President Trump makes a controversial tweet and then recovers in subsequent days when the position is softened.   Simply, buy when a decline occurs from a Trump tweet and sell a few days later after the recovery.
  3. Sell Everything and Wait.  I know some people who have done exactly that. They expect an imminent crash of the market.
At this point, I'm leaning towards a blend of #1 and #2: buy core stocks and hold and add peripheral holdings (often of the same stocks) and sell into the rallies and then buy the dips.  Of course, I don't know what the future holds and if #3 is the right strategy, I will end up seeing a sharp decline in our holdings.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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