I read an article that stated since 1950, the market has had 35 declines of 10% or more. In all 35 instances, the market passed the previous highs. Sometimes within a few weeks, other times a few months, and in a couple cases a few years. But the recovery happened 100% of the time. I would include a link to the article, but I can no longer find it.
Of course, one issue is timing. If it takes 5 or 10 years to recover, it may be challenging for those who have no other source of income. A second issue is stock risk. Inevitably, some stocks keep going down after a 10% decline and don't recover to new highs. A third issue is the decline may continue past 10% to 20-40% as it has in the past. It seems to be a no brainer decision to invest something, if one has time and other sources of income.
Here's my plan for the next 10% decline:
- In retirement accounts, invest up to 50% of cash available. These funds won't be needed for the next 5 years of living expenses.
- Scale in the investments. For example, 10% of funds at 10% decline, additional 20% at 15% decline, 25% at 20% decline (bear market).
- Invest in market index ETFs instead of individual stocks. My current choices are VOO (S&P 500 index) and MGK (Large Cap Growth Stock index.)
- Buy and mostly hold. I will evaluate some options for scaling out gains in the future.
For reference, I feel the market is extremely high and a correction is inevitable, but who knows when. However, I do know that it will be difficult to invest new money when the market declines. Hopefully, I will be disciplined and follow this plan.
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This is not financial nor investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
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