Volatility makes it challenging to hodl buy the dip stocks. When a very profitable stock dips 20, 30 or 50%, my instinct is to sell and keep some profit. Or if it drops right after I buy, I tend to sell once it recovers to a small gain. As a result, I sold AAPL that I bought in 1990 right before the Desert Storm drop, sold AMZN in 2009 after the Great Recession drop, and sold GOOGL during the Great Recession drop. These shares would now be worth mult-millions, even though I invested only a few thousand in each. My problem is not having enough conviction to keep the position.
Unfortunately, I tend to hodl stocks that drop and never recover. LOL.
However, at this time I have a bit of conviction for the "buy the dip" stocks I am hodling:
- I believe the negative impact of AI on SAAS software stocks is overblown. I think companies will learn that the effort to use AI instead of Customer Relationship Software programs will be more effort than paying for the service. For example, people can do a tax return on their own on a spreadsheet, which I do, instead of purchasing Tax Prep software, but very few people do that.
- I believe the input stocks, such as memory and chips, to AI infrastructure will continue to do well in the near term.
On the other hand, I'm sure this will be like the railroad, car companies and airlines when the first started. There will be many AI based companies, more than are economically sustainable. It is not clear to me right now which ones will survive. So I am sticking with the two big names, GOOGL/GOOG and MSFT.
My spouse has been hodling GOOGL and GOOG since 2015. I tried to convince her to sell some at $150, $200, and $300. Each time she declined. Her GOOG and GOOGL stock are up 19X since 2015.
My final conviction is not stock related. I firmly believe President Trump will frequently TACO to support the stock market advance continuing until the midterm elections in 2026. TACO works until it doesn't. We shall see.
This is not financial, stock picking nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
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