Interesting Bull vs. Bear Markets Chart

Sometimes a chart can mislead one's thinking.

I saw this chart and liked it.  It seemed to support the concept of staying invested since the Bull Market sections (blue) are tall and wide, while the Bear Market sections (red) are short and narrow.  Bigger is much better it appears.

However, when looking at the math, I realized the maximum loss for a Bear Market is 100%.   Thus the height of the Bear Market section is limited, while the Bull Market section has no upper limit.  In addition, a 50% drop in a Bear Market, will require a 100% gain to break even in a Bull Market.  Similarly, a a 25% drop in a Bear Market, will require a 33% gain to break even in a Bull Market.

Yes, Bull Markets are great.   However, Bear Markets are significantly more painful than implied by the chart below.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday  for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Will the Stock Market Dip Keep Dipping?

Although the market may rebound this morning, I expect the market to continue to decline, perhaps significantly.   Bitcoin has declined over 30% and META has fallen over 25% in the past month.  

With the current volatility, the direction of the market can change very quickly.  I'm tempted to short some stocks, but I've decided it is too risky if I'm wrong.  I'm going to stick to my plan (My New Strategy for Investing During Market Declines) and do nothing today, expect for maybe closing some SPY puts for a profit.  

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday  for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Social Security COLA and Medicare B Premiums for 2026

For 2026, Social Security payments will increase 2.8% and Medicare Part B premiums will increase to $202.90 from $185.  The higher payment will start in January 2026.

For more details, see It's official. Medicare Part B 2026 premium will eat a big chunk of Social Security COLA

For more on Reaping the Rewards , check back every  Friday  for a new segment.

This is not financial nor retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Surviving Stock Market Volatility

Today, I plan to do nothing in the stock market, neither buy nor sell.    I will not panic sell.    I will not buy the dip. 

I have structured our investments to provide monthly income based on dividend and interest.  I don't expect a decline, even a significant one, to materially affect the expected income payments for end of November and end of December 2025.

The only trade I may make is to sell some SPY January 16, 2026 expiration puts for a 100% or more profit.   My 260 strike puts have already reached that percentage gain, but I currently plan to be greedy and hold longer since I expect the market is in the early stages of a correction at a minimum.

For perspective, a 100% gain is not much in absolute dollars, since each SPY 260 put contract only cost $7 per 100 shares.   However, I would definitely sell at a 1000% gain or $70 per contract.  For this to happen, SPY, currently at $652, would need to fall at least $150 in a few days for a 1000% gain, which is highly unlikely.   In between, the decision will depend on how greedy I feel at the moment and how bearish the market seems.😎   The downside risk is the 260 put contract can easily go to worthless on January 16, 2026, which is only 2 months away.

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Dealing With Today's Stock Market Decline

Today's stock market volatility reminds me to be ready to invest if there is a significant decline.  I'm not buying the dips, but am waiting to use My New Strategy for Investing During Market Declines when there is a decline of at least 10%.

In the past, I was always hesitant put money in during a significant decline such as 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and most recently April 2025.  My New Strategy for Investing During Market Declines will help me overcome that hesitancy and systematically invest more funds during a pullback.

For more on  Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Arrrgh! - Appliances Linked to Internet

Over the past five years we replaced some appliances and they seem to have the added feature of using an app and being connected to the internet.  These include in order our washer/dryer, garage door opener, furnace thermostat, most recently, our dishwasher.

We set up the washer/dryer because it was novel and we wanted to try it.   However, we have not used the app since setting it up.   We chose not to set up the garage door opener, and don't miss not having the feature.   The thermostat was set up by our installer, but other than showing the outside temperature, we haven't got much benefit.  I have since turned off internet access.   We also decided not to set up the app on the dishwasher, despite having a couple cycles that we would use occasionally on the app, which was disappointing to us.

At this point, I don't feel it's useful or worth the effort to learn how to connect to and use the apps/internet with our appliances.  I didn't need smart appliances before the internet and I don't need them now.  I want my appliances to be self contained and self sufficient for use.  Period. 

For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial, appliance, app, nor internet advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Know One's Health Insurance Benefits

Understanding insurance eligible benefits and payment amounts is a massive morass for customers. 

My health insurance allows me one physical checkup annually for no charge.  Recently, I received a $30 copay bill from a provider for my annual physical checkup.   I called the insurance company to confirm there should be no charge.  They said yes, but the provider coded it as a regular visit.  I found out the code for the annual checkup.  I called the provider and they said their records show it was my annual physical checkup.  I informed them I was charged and they agreed to resubmit with the correct code.

Hopefully, this will be corrected and I will not pay the $30 bill.

Similarly, I thought I had reached my maximum benefit for my dental plan and started paying cash, at a discount, for my routine preventive visits.  It turns out that my that my allowed routine oral exams and preventive cleanings are not  counted towards my benefit maximum.  I am now working with my dental provider to submit claims and get reimbursed for my cash payments.

When  I was younger, I never was close to the maximum benefit or maximum out of pocket (OOP) ceiling.   Now that I'm older, I have been reaching those maximums on a regular basis.  For the maximum benefit, I sometimes need to delay nonessential services to the next year to have the insurance cover the cost.   For the maximum (OOP), all costs are paid by insurance after reaching the OOP and I want to do my medical services earlier to have the covered 100% by insurance.

It seems managing insurance benefit coverage is another complexity as one gets older.

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance , check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Use Product Warranties for Replacement or Refund

Five years ago, we purchased a pot filler for kitchen.   About every 1-2 years, the o-rings wear out.   Since the product has a limited lifetime warranty, I call the company and request the parts, which the send free of charge.  Since I can replace the parts myself, the only cost is my time and labor,

We also replaced our faucets several years ago.  The faucets carry a lifetime warranty.  Whenever, the faucets don't shut off completely,  I call the manufacturer and request a new faucet cartridge, which is sent to me free of charge.   Again, my only cost is my time and labor to install the new cartridge.

Recently, I purchased a tennis racquet for my son.  After a month, the frame had cracked in 3 places.  We only noticed the major fracture.  When we took it back to the store, they notice two other minor cracks.  I asked if it would be covered by warranty since it was about a month old.  The sales people said the warranty manager would look at it, but believed that the racquet was above normal wear and tear since there were many scratches on the side of the frame.  I responded that he owned the same brand racquet, but different model, for 2 years with even more scratches and it never cracked.

Two days later, the store manager called and said the company replaced the racquet with no questions asked. 

Using a warranty to fix issues definitely saves money since I don't need to replace the product nor have a repair person service it.

For more on  Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor warranty advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Cost to Have Others Manage Investments

The cost for having an advisor manage one's investments seems high to me, often at 1% per year on Assets Under Management (AUM).    For every $1 million, the cost is $10,000 per year for an advisor's services.  

That seems high to me.  Why?   Because the same advisor will charge 1% for managing $100,000 or $1000.   Does it take 10 times to effort to manage $1 million?   No.  They just increase the holding 10 times.   Similarly, if they are managing $10 million at a cost of $100,000 per year, are they doing 100 times the work versus managing $100,000.

I don't have an issue paying $1000 per year.    However, I don't want to pay $10,000 or $100,000 per year for the same investment service just because I asked the advisor the manage more money in the same investments.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Alternative Investments - Leverage, Risk, and Fees, Oh My

Alternative investments previously made available only to high net worth accredited investors are being made available to main street investors.  Private credit, private equity, hedge funds, and multifamily real estate investments are now offered to investors with $50,000 net worth. 

I have read through several prospectuses from financial advisors and fund principals.  Here is my understanding:

• Much higher potential returns.   Often the returns are in the 10-15% range, much higher than I can get from CDs, bonds or stock index funds. Alternative investments have given higher returns consistently for many years. Of course, returns are not guaranteed.
• Leverage.   Many of the funds use leverage to achieve returns by borrowing funds to boost returns.
• Risk.  Of course, higher returns usually involve higher risk, meaning the possibility of not achieving expected returns or even losing money. 
• Fees.   The cost for participating can be high in the form of fees, which is how the offering party earns money for finding or assembling the alternative investments.  These fees are paid even if the investment does not deliver expected returns.
• Lockup periods.  Many of  these investments have lockup periods of 5-10 years before return of principal or limited withdrawal windows. 

My assessment.    The opportunities look attractive, but the space is getting more crowded and returns are starting to go lower.   

This reminds of the time in 2007 with collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) which grouped subprime mortgage debt in notes that were "safe" since the debt was diversified and a few defaults would not affect them.   They offered higher returns for higher risk that was masked by diversification.   In 2008 there massive defaults which caused the bonds to move towards worthless.   Several investment banking firms when bankrupt, which was followed by the Great Recession.

Are alternative investments for me?  Not so much. I have declined putting funds in alternative investments at this time.   I know I am missing out on higher returns, but I don't want to be investing in them when they stop working and create big losses.

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC