Prediction Markets

Prediction markets started as a methodology to aggregate numerous opinions to assess the probability of an outcome.  Prediction markets then evolved into a form of entertainment.  Lately, it has become a source of winning funds based on correctly choosing future outcomes by individuals.  Examples include: Who will win an election: and Will a certain action be taken.

Prediction markets have adeptly avoided being regulated by states as gambling nor the SEC as investments. Cleverly, the prediction markets are neither for now.

IMHO, prediction markets appear to be also a form of gambling.   Participants are "betting" on the outcome of an event and are compensated if they choose correctly.  Participants can also "bet" on the future value of an item, which makes it close to "investing" in options.

Given the easy online access and lack of regulation, it seems prediction markets can become a source of financial issues for some people.  Personally, I am staying away from playing in prediction markets and just periodically follow people's opinion on different issues.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every  Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor prediction market advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Towel Warmer Gift

One year, my spouse gave me a towel warmer to use at the hot tub on cold days.  I would put my bathrobe in it on cold days when I was using the hot tub.   I tried it for one fall to winter season.   It was nice to have a warm bathrobe.  However, it took too much effort carry the towel warmer out on the deck and bring it back in every time I used it.  I stopped using.

After a few months, my spouse commented that I should give it away.  I hate giving away things that we have recently bought and not used.  I decided to use the towel warmer for my showers, instead of with the use of the hot tub.   It has been great.  I have enjoyed getting out the shower and into a warm towel.

Using the towel warmer requires a little more advance planning for my shower.  Sometime before the shower, I need to put a towel in the warmer.  Then, I need to wait about 10 minutes before taking my shower, since I take quick showers that don't last enough to sufficiently warm the towel.

At this point, we're keeping the towel warmer since I use it almost every time when I shower.

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every  Friday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor showering advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Roth Conversion or Not

I've been doing a lot of thinking about how to deal my retirement accounts and future RMDs.  I had considered doing Roth conversions again, which I have done in the past.   For me, it seems like a no brainer to do a Roth conversion while in the 12% tax bracket.  Lately, I've been considering doing Roth conversions even in the 22-24% tax bracket.  However, I am leaning towards not executing a Roth conversion at the higher tax bracket.

Here's my thinking:

• It doesn't change the amount of money I will ultimately get. Doing a Roth conversion now at 22% tax bracket or keeping funds in traditional IRA and withdrawing later at 22% tax bracket give me the same amount of after tax money in the future, even though no taxes on Roth and federal taxes on traditional IRA.  
• It may affect the taxes my heirs need to pay.   Inherited IRAs need to be withdrawn within 10 years.  However, the amount withdrawn may or may not put them above the 22% tax bracket and unlikely to put them over the 24% tax bracket.   Both my kids are younger, not even graduated from college yet.  I expect the inherited traditional IRA withdrawals keep them in the 22% bracket and may put them barely into the 24% tax bracket if they are single.   It is highly unlikely to put them above the 24% tax bracket even if they are single.  Net it likely be a wash whether I pay the taxes now or the heir pay them later.
• Doing a Roth conversion mainly will give my heirs flexibility not to manage how much is withdrawn each year, since no taxes are paid.    With an inherited traditional IRA, they will need to do more advanced tax planning.

Based on my current situation, I believe my traditional IRA amount is low enough not to create a tax bomb for my heirs.  Therefore, I will only do further Roth conversions if I'm in the 12% tax bracket.

For more on  Crossing Generations, check back every  Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial, Roth conversion nor tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Muni Bond Funds Pay Based on Accrual, Not 100% on Ex Date

I've been buying municipal bonds funds for the federal tax exempt interest payments.  On January 25-28, 2025, I bought some T Rowe Price municipal bond funds,  PRIHX, PRFHX and PRTAX.  Since this was before the ex-dividend date of January 31, I expected to get the full month's interest payment.  That's what happens with stocks purchased before the ex-dividend date.

When I checked on Friday, January 30, 2026, the date of the ex-dividend, I only received 1/10 or less of the expected dividend.  I called the brokerages, and they gave a couple of explanations/recommendations.  First, wait until until Monday.  Sometimes, it takes an overnight adjustment to correct the issue.  Second, one brokerage said several people had the issue and it was being corrected.   I also called T Rowe Price.  They said that the dividend had not been posted on their website yet and therefore, I should wait.

On Monday, February 2, 2025, there was no change and I call Schwab back for more assistance.  The agent put me on hold and consulted with the mutual fund specialists.   After a few minute, he explained that the bond mutual funds paid dividends on a accrual basis, i.e. a prorated amount based on how long I owned it.   Hmm...  I didn't know that.   I called T Rowe Price and confirmed.

After further investigation, I learned many bond funds use the accrual method to pay monthly dividends. 

Disclosure:  I was not compensated by T Rowe Price  nor Schwab for writing this post.

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every  Wednesday  for a new segment.

This is not financial nor mutual fund investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Recession Indicator - 10-year vs 3-month Spread

The 10-year vs 3-month treasury spread just turned positive, which may indicate an upcoming recession according to this Motley Fool article.

This signal triggered before the last 4 recessions. It just happened again.

Here's the graph from article:

For the past four recessions, the 10-year/3-month yield spread turned positive just before a recession officially started.

That spread just recently flipped from negative to positive again, which historically has meant a recession occurring within the next year.

For more on Ideas You Can Use , check back every  Tuesday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Forbes Article on Private Equity

By the time alternative investment options used by institutions and high net worth individuals are made available to main street investors like myself, I suspect that the opportunities are not as good or more risky.

Below is a Forbes article on why Private Equity may not be a great opportunity now and reflects the concern I have.   

Private Equity is Suddenly Awash with Zombie Firms

Yeah, I plan to still stay away from Private Equity and Private Credit.

For more on Strategy and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Reframe RMDs as Our Pension

I've been reading about concerns with managing RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions) in the future.  RMDs are requirements by the IRS to withdraw a certain amount from IRAs, 401Ks and similar retirement accounts.   The main concern is the significant increase in taxable income versus if the retiree was not required to withdrawal the funds.

I understand the tax implications.   However, I decide to reframe the RMDs as a pension payment instead of an involuntary withdrawal.  If I think of an RMD as another pension payment, I don't worry about the payment causing an increase in taxes.  It's just a fact of life.  More income equals more taxes.   

This is especially true for IRA/401Ks that are less than $1 million since the RMD is about $38,000 per million at 73.   Most people probably will have less than $1 million in their IRA/401K.   If I had over $2 million in an IRA/401K, I'd start worrying and considering whether Roth conversions or other strategies to reduce taxes should be used.

This reframing ignore the impact of inherited IRA/401Ks on the beneficiaries, but that is a topic for another post.

For more on  New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial, RMD, nor retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Third Time Procedure for Heart Condition

Happy Valentine's Day.

Last month, I had my third procedure on my heart.  

The first one was after failing a treadmill stress test despite have no symptoms, such as shortness for breath or heart pain.    The procedure put 4 stents in the three major arteries about 13 years ago.  I became a vegetarian and followed the  Esselstyn/Ornish no added oil diet. Even with this strict diet, my LAD heart artery re-clogged to 90% or higher in several places.

About a year ago, I failed a second treadmill test despite having no symptoms again.  The recommendation and decision was to do a coronary bypass arterial graft (CABG) with the left interior mammary artery (LIMA) since the LAD appeared to be severe blocked.  Essentially, it's taken the artery going to the left chest muscle and rerouting it to the LAD.   Very low failure rate for this CABG since the LIMA, for some unknown reason almost never clogs up with plaque. 

Well, mine failed.  Turned out the LAD is clogged so badly, the LIMA wasn't getting enough blood to the heart. In fact, for the first time ever, I experience some some angina symptoms. So the decision was made to attempt cleaning out the blockages and restenting.   Since doing this, I still feel about the same.  I will be doing cardiac rehab for a few months.  This time,  I will push it a little harder to determine if the procedure has solve the issue.

Either way, I will assume this procedure will last 5-10 years.  I will work with my cardiologist to monitor it more frequently that once every 10 years.  I will also be less strict on my diet going forward, as long as I can maintain my current weight. 

Finally, I think I may start flying first class for our trips in the future.😎  

For more on  Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor health advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

The Value of Bitcoin to Me and My Retirement

There are lots of pundits that rave about Bitcoin as a great investment and a storage of value, versus fiat currency such as the U.S. Dollar..  There are even companies, such as Strategy (MSTR), that buy bitcoin as their primary operation.  Financial advisors have started recommending putting a percentage of one's saving into bitcoin. 

I guess I'm not convinced.  I did buy one share of GBTC, a bitcoin trust, a couple years ago and sold it for profit.  Other than that, I have not taken much interest in owning or investing in bitcoin.   I don't get how it has any value.  So bitcoin is worth nothing, nada, zero to me.  I've been called "old school" for that perspective.

Even if I could justify bitcoin having value, it is way too volatile for me to consider as a worthwhile investment for retirement.  I prefer currency that has some stability, even if it is the fiat dollar.

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

This is not financial, bitcoin, investing, nor retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Cars Broken Into at College

My daughter uses one of our cars at college.  She parks in a secure garage by her apartment.  Unfortunately, due to freezing the temperatures, the gate at the entrance has been kept open. Yesterday, she received an email that some cars were broken into the previous night.   The perpetrators smashed the passenger side windows to get into the car.

She was worried and  called me as she was going to inspect her car.  The car is fully insured against vandalism, but it's still takes time and effort to work with insurance companies and get the car repaired.  Maybe a week of losing use of the car and she needed for a trip home soon.

Fortunately, her car was not damaged, probably because she does not leave anything of value in view on the seats.  Just bags from take out food runs.   Also, the vehicle is 22 years old and most break ins were on newer vehicles.

She was lucky.  Some of the other residents at the apartment were not.  Unfortunately, the video surveillance cameras did not get good pictures of the perpretators.

For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor anti theft advice advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2026 Achievement Catalyst, LLC