Hoping for the Best and Preparing for the Worst

There are currently two seemingly opposing beliefs about the stock market:

• Belief #1: Stocks will keep going up and always buy the dip.
• Belief #2: Stocks are extremely overvalued and a major decline will happen.
  

Both beliefs are right, but differ in timing of benefit, i.e. long term versus short term.

Let's look at each belief.

• Stocks will keep going up and always buy the dip. Over the long term, this belief is correct.  In 20 year rolling periods since 1919, the S&P 500 (or its representation before it was created) is always a gain.   
• Stocks are extremely overvalued and a major decline will happen.  In the short term, this can be true.  The declines average about 1 year and usually last less than 2.7 years.  It usually takes 2.5 to 4.5 years to recover, but may take up to 10 years to return to previous highs as in the lost decade in the early 2000s.

In hoping for the best, I am staying invested with our core holdings.   If the market keeps going up, we will benefit.  If it falls, we can weather a decline that takes up to 5 years to recover.  Additionally, we will stay invested in our our children's long term savings accounts.

In preparing for the worst, we are keeping sufficient cash equivalent funds to cover 5+ years of living expenses and to invest in an index fund such as VOO as the market declines, especially for our children's accounts which will be invested for at least 20 years.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Know Mutual Fund Year Capital Gains Distributions Before December

Since I am retired, I can manage my taxable income received each year.  For tax planners like me, getting Mutual Fund capital gains distributions in mid to late December can ruin a good tax plan, especially if one is on the borderline of receiving tax credits or being in a lower tax bracket.

However, I don't have to wait until December to find out the amount of expected capital gains distributions.  The amount is usually determined at the end of September or October, but isn't paid until December.   I often can find out the expected capital gains distribution in early October or early November by checking the Mutual Fund website. 

With the expected capital gains information, I can plan other sources of taxable income, such as stock tax loss harvesting,  to ensure we know our tax bracket and eligibility for tax credits and deductions for the calendar year.

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

New Dishwasher Review

Recently I wrote about Replacing Instead of Repairing a Dishwasher based on the cost of repair versus putting that money money towards a new dishwasher.   I'm usually a fan for using cars and appliances until they are beyond repair.  For example, I drive a 2003 F-150, which I have been repairing instead of replacing.

We have bought a Bosch 800 dishwasher to replace a Bosch 800 dishwasher from 2016.   For reference, I received no compensation for this post.

Even though our replaced dishwasher was working well, I've noticed that our new dishwasher cleans much better.  Significant changes have been made to the lower spray arm are such that pots and pans are much cleaner than our previous dishwasher did.   The improvement is a multi armed spray device that can focus on extra soiled pots and pans. 

In addition, the new dishwasher seems to dry out washed items much better that the replaced dishwasher.  One reason is we are now using Jet Dry from the very start.   In our previous dishwasher, we didn't start using Jet Dry until last year, even though the instructions said to use.   As with our previous dishwasher, the new one is extremely quiet.

The dishwasher has many more options than we use. Although the dishwasher has several cycle choices, we typically only use the Auto cycle.   The new dishwasher can be connected to an app via the Internet, but we do not to use that feature.  

Overall, we are very happy with the new purchase.  

For more on Crossing Generations , check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Hypothetical Impact of Distributing Billionaires Wealth

A common misperception is that billionaires could solve poverty, health care crisis and other wealth gap issues if they transferred their wealth to the rest of the population.  

Let's do the math.

How Much Every American Would Get If Jeff Bezos’ Wealth Was Evenly Distributed

According the article distributing Bezos' net worth of $234B to the entire U.S. population of 340.1 million would result in each person receiving $688.   Not even enough to pay one months rent.

Now let's look at all billionaires.  There are 1135 billionaires in the U.S with a total net worth of $5.7 trillion.  $5.7 trillion is close to the U.S. annual budget of 7.01 trillion and would reduce the $37 trillion national debt ONE TIME.   Distributing $5.7 trillion to 340.1 million people would result in each person receiving a ONE TIME payment of $16,764.   Distributing $5.7 trillion to 128 million households would result in each house receiving a ONE TIME payment of $44,531. 

What could people do with the money?

Average student loan debt: $39,000  Total student loan debt: $1.8 trillion

Average credit card debt: $6,500  Total credit card debt:  $1.21 trillion

Average car loan debt: $24,297.  Total car loan debt: 1.61 trillion

Average rent paid:2000/month    Total rent paid:  $500 billion - $1.4 trillion.

Total amount eliminated: $5.12 - $6.02 Trillion ONE TIME.

IMHO, monetary benefits that are ONE TIME usually do not solve underlying personal finance issue(s).   Taking and using all the wealth billionaires have is not a sustainable solution.

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor personal finance advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Selling Stocks for Tax Loss Harvesting

I have started selling some stocks in taxable accounts to claim a loss for the 2025 tax return.  I sold some on Thursday, October 29, 2025 and the stocks closed lower.  I hope they stay lower, since I have to wait at least 30 days before buying them back, or else the IRS disallows the loss, calling it a "wash sale."

The IRS rule requires a minimum 30 day period before or after the sale of stock at a loss for the purchase of the same stock to replace it.  Otherwise, the IRS disallows the claim of a loss for that stock.

I sold Starbucks (SBUX), Target (TGT) and Etsy (ETSY) for $84.11, $95.48 and $69.33 respectively on October 29, 2025.  I will wait until at least November 29, 2025 to make sure I meet the 30 day period, before buying back the shares at, hopefully, a lower price than I sold.

For more on Ideas You Can Use , check back every Tuesday  for a new segment.

This is not financial, investment nor tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

DIY Washer Repair for Leaking Soap Dispenser Tray

"If you define the problem correctly, you almost have the solution." ~ Steve Jobs

Last week, my spouse told me the LG washing machine was leaking water.  She noticed some puddle wetness on a runner in the laundry room.  We couldn't see the where the leak was coming from.  Her first guess was it was from under the washer.

Being an engineer, I wanted to find the cause of the leak and try to fix it before calling a repair service.  First, looked underneath the washer.   Looked dry except for the corner under the drain filter.   I had cleaned the filter earlier this month and maybe, I didn't reinstall it correctly.  I checked and reinstalled it.   Started the washer and there was no leak at the filter, but still a leak on the floor from an unknown location.

I put some paper towels under the washer and they only got wet at the front left corner.  I was starting to worry that I might have to move the washer dryer stack to inspect underneath. 

Then, I happen to notice some water drips below the soap dispenser at the upper left corner.  I checked to make sure the soap dispenser drain wasn't clogged.  I also cleaned the soap dispenser tray to clear and clog that would cause water overflow.  Neither had a clog and water still leaked at soap dispenser when I ran the washer

Finally, I decided to run the washer with the soap dispenser tray removed.   I noticed that the overhead water spray was directed slightly outward to cause slight overflow and a leak.  My first solution was to clean to spouts in case calcium buildup from hard water was misdirecting the spray.  That didn't work.  Next I turned down the water pressure to reduce the spray force.  That helped but didn't eliminate the leakage.  Finally, I created a gasket with some foam tape to close the 3/32" gap the water was leaking through.  That worked  I will continue to monitor and adjust the fix if needed.

I expect if I called a repair service, they may have found the issue faster, but would have recommended replacing the entire soap dispenser spray unit.   I estimate that would have been at least $53.95 in parts and at least $250 in service call plus labor.  My solution cost me about 2 hours of finding the cause and 30 minutes of trying solution.  I already had the foam tape from another project and there was no additional parts cost.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday  for a new segment.

This is not financial nor repair advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Higher Refunds for 2025 Tax Returns

Due to the OBBB tax changes being made effective in 2025, and the lack of withholding adjustments by the IRS, it is likely that many people will get higher tax refunds for the 2025 tax year when they file in 2026.  In some cases, the refund will be significantly higher.

For me, I had the same amount withheld as I did in 2024.   However, due to the tax law changes, I will be receiving about 1/2 of what I withheld back as a refund, or about 20X the refund I received last year.   Unfortunately, I did not determine thisuntil earlier this month.  To help correct this, I reduced my withholding for the rest of the year to $0.   Still, I will get about 15X the refund I got last year even though I am withholding 17% less than last year.

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor tax advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Glad I Resisted FOMO Stock Buying

As I posted in FOMO Buy or Fear the Crash, I had been wrestling with whether to invest right away or wait until the next correction.   After Thursday, October 30 and Friday, October 31, 2025 market results, with several major tech stocks declining, I am glad I decided to wait for a correction of at least 10%.  

Thursday and Friday's META and MSFT's decline along with other significant declines for non Mag 7 stocks increased my concern that we are closer to a correction than previously thought. 

Even though the stocks may rebound quickly, as they have in the past few months, I am still glad that I have resisted putting more funds into the stock market. 

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Woohoo! Made 7000% on a NOK Call Option

Pure luck.   I bought NOK (Nokia) call options expiring Jan 16, 2026 at 7, 8 and 10 strikes.  They cost me from $1.66 to $4.66 per 100 share contract.   Really just a lotto ticket since NOK was about $5 a share at the beginning of October, 2025.    Nokia popped to $6 when they reported earnings on 10/23.  Then on 10/28 NVDA (Nvidia) announced they were investing $1 Billion in NOK.

I ended up selling the 100 share option contracts from $40 to $160 , a gain from 830% to 7390%.  In only 1-2 months since buying them.

Am I brilliant? .No, just pure luck.  

I'm hoping luck will strike twice and that NVDA will make an investment in BB (Blackberry) since I also have BB call options.   😎

In any event, I am quitting buying options on individual stocks the rest of 2025.   I don't want to lose the gains I made on Wednesday, especially after the hit several stocks, such as META and MSFT took on yesterday.

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every  Friday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

FOMO Buy or Fear the Crash?

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." ~ Yogi Berra

I've been wrestling with whether to invest now or wait until the next correction.   On one hand, I have data that shows the S&P index always exceeds its previous high, usually in 1-2 years or less.   Recently, if one had invested in the S&P at the February 19, 2020 high before COVID lockdown, one would be up about 200% today.

Then I saw the chart below.  Looks scary for two reason.  The 2000-2002 bear market tool about 12 years to recover to the 2000 peak.   From 2009 until now, it looks like "Stonks only go up," with only 3-5 short blips. For example, on October 28, 2025,  NVDA (Nvidia) was up over 115% from its low on April 8, 2025.   IMHO,  the market is due for a major extended correction.

So.... I'm going to stay with the plan of holding the core, selling the peripheral holdings and wait for a 10% or greater drop to start scaling in to VOO and MGK for my kids' accounts.

For more on Crossing Generations, check back every  Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC