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Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Recession Indicator - 10-year vs 3-month Spread

The 10-year vs 3-month treasury spread just turned positive, which may indicate an upcoming recession according to this Motley Fool article.


Here's the graph from article:


For the past four recessions, the 10-year/3-month yield spread turned positive just before a recession officially started.

That spread just recently flipped from negative to positive again, which historically has meant a recession occurring within the next year.

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This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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