Monday, May 04, 2009

5/4/09 Stock Position Update - Up as the rally resumes

Since all the stocks have received sell signals, I'm no longer buying from the 7/7/08 buy list, the 10/20/08 Buy List, or the buy list of 1/12/09. On 3/18/09, I sold the 50 shares of Southwestern Energy (SWN) that I bought on 3/5/09. While the rally has continued, these stocks are no longer keeping pace, which I don't think is a good sign for the rally extending much further. If any position get closes to breaking even, I will likely sell the stock.

This past weekend, I updated the stock picks for the modified Unemotional Investor Growth system. I will publish the new picks later today.

The portfolio rose 5.7 % this week versus 2.5 to 4% increases for the market indices. The overall portfolio is down 19.2% and the remaining holdings are down 35.1%. The portfolio is now way above the previous bottoms that occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.

For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.

From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 and 1/12/09 Buy List
Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

Price on 5/1/09

Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50



Potash (POT) [7/18/08]*10



Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]*50



Potash (POT) [7/24/08]*10



Southwestern Energy (SWN) [3/5/09]*50


sold on 3/18/09 @ $30.52

*Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. After received a buy signal on 1/12/09, Southwestern Energy received a second sell signal on 3/6/09. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time. It appears I may get an opportunity to sell the remaining shares of Southwestern Energy this week.

At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock.

From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
Stock [short date]SharesShort Price


Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100


closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69

I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.

At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .

On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling a weekending low of $1.77 on 3/6/09. It closed at $8.00 on 5/1/09, significantly rising last week. However, it is still too bad I didn't hold the short position until now :-)

The market continues to be choppy. The Dow and S&P have reached 12-year lows. As of the close on 5/1/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 8212.41, 1719.20, 877.52. All three indices have risen significantly from lows in March 9, 2009. The Dow and S&P 500 declines are -5.86% and -2.49% respectively year to date. The Nasdaq is now up 8.89% for the year.

Economists acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. I cashed in another 5% of one of our managed funds, because I believe there will be a pull back soon. However, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.

Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern Energy in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.

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This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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