Monday, May 11, 2009

5/11/09 Stock Position Update - The rally continues

Since all the stocks have received sell signals, I'm no longer buying from the 7/7/08 buy list, the 10/20/08 Buy List, or the buy list of 1/12/09. Last week, I was able to sell Southwestern Energy (SWN), which was one of the stocks on the first buy list. While the rally has continued, these stocks are only keeping pace, which I don't think is a good sign for the rally extending much further. If any position get close to breaking even, I will consider selling the stock.

I updated the stock picks for the modified Unemotional Investor Growth system with a 5/4/09 buy list that only had one stock, Cognizant Technology (CTSH). For now, I plan to buy Cognizant Technology only if the stock market corrects and the stock falls to $20.

The portfolio rose 4.1 % this week versus 1.2 to 6% increases for the market indices. The overall portfolio is down 15.9% and the remaining holdings are down 39.6%. The portfolio is now way above the previous bottoms that occurred October 10, 2008 at -35.0% and -53.0% respectively. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands. Otherwise, the prices of these stocks have been destroyed by the October through November decline.

For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for every stock: Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08), Hess (9/12/08), Research in Motion (9/12/08), Southwestern Energy (9/26/08), Postash (10/10/08) and Bucyrus (10/10/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM). Southwestern Energy was the only stock identified for the 1/12/09 buy list.

From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 and 1/12/09 Buy List
Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

Price on 5/8/09

Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50



Potash (POT) [7/18/08]*10



Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]*50


sold on 5/8/09 at $40.90

Potash (POT) [7/24/08]*10



Southwestern Energy (SWN) [3/5/09]*50


sold on 3/18/09 @ $30.52

*Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. Southwestern Energy received a sell signal on September 26, 2008. After received a buy signal on 1/12/09, Southwestern Energy received a second sell signal on 3/6/09. Potash received a sell signal on October 10, 2008. I plan to sell the position once it reaches the original purchase price, which may take a very, very long time.

At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks and make no more purchase since sell signals have been give for every stock.

From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
Stock [short date]SharesShort Price


Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100


closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69

I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I didn't short Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted.

At first, I was looking for other stocks to short, but at this point, I think it's too risky to be shorting .

On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $6.32 on 10/24/08, rebounded to $14.19 on 10/31/08 before falling a weekending low of $1.77 on 3/6/09. It closed at $10.50 on 5/8/09, significantly rising again last week. The massive rebound of Las Vegas Sands and other poor quality stocks continues to support the current advance is likely a bear market rally.

The market continues to be choppy. The Dow and S&P have reached 12-year lows. As of the close on 5/8/09, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively at 8574.65, 1739, 929.23. All three indices have risen significantly from lows in March 9, 2009. The Dow declines -1.05% year to date. The Nasdaq and S&P 500are now up 10.27% and 3.87% for the year.

Economists acknowledge that the economy has been in recession since December, 2007. I expect the market will likely continue to be choppy. For now, I am looking reinvest the cash that was raised at the end of 2008 and I will no longer be trying to short stocks. I cashed in gains in our managed funds, because I believe there will be a pull back soon. However, we will not be adding any new money, until the Dow crosses either 6000 or 10,000.

Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, and Potash in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Hess, Potash, Range Resources, and Sears Holdings.

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This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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