Saturday, August 17, 2013

Too Much Personal Exuberance

"It's déjà vu all over again." ~ Yogi Berra

It's starting to feel like 2007 again to me.  Back then, I recall the stock market (and my company stock) kept advancing despite many negative factors (e.g. subprime mortgages) in the economy.   I only extrapolated up when estimating the future value of our portfolio.

Over the past month, I've caught myself looking mainly at 2-3 year scenarios where the stock market and my company stock are significantly higher.   That's easy to do since the market performance of the first half of 2013 has caused many investors to forget about the many negative economic factors that could bring the market down significantly again.

My recent thinking to consider mainly at positive scenarios probably means that market is likely to correct soon. It probably means that I should be selling to raise cash for the next market decline.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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