The Return of Economic Optimism

Economic sentiment seems to be improving significantly.  Since the election, the stock market and interest rates are higher.  Real estate also seems to be doing better.  According to Zillow, our house value has increased 30% to its highest estimated value since 2007.  Also, businesses seem to be more positve about their future than before.

Positive sentiment doesn't necessarily translate into improved economic results, but it is a good start.   Optimistic expectations often lead to more investment, which leads to postive economic outcomes.

I'm looking forward to good year for our investments in 2017.

For more on New Beginnings, check back Sundays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Trading Ideas for After the Fed Meeting

I have no idea what impact the Fed meeting will have on stocks and bonds.  But I am ready to take action for a major move in either direction.

I expect the Fed to raise interest rates.  Past that, I have no expectations.  I have no predictions on the magnitude of the increase or the tone of the Fed notes.   So the markets may react either positively or negatively.

Option 1.   The stock and bond market react negatively.   I have a list of stocks that I will try to purchase at lower prices.    Sectors that I am considering are:  Biotech, Pharma, Utilities and Consumer Staples,   These have been the laggard sectors since the election.  I've been waiting for them to go lower.

Option 2.  The stock market reacts positively.   I will use the opportunity to trim shares in positions with significant gains.   At this point, I would reduce holding mainly in the total stock market ETFs, financials and oil stocks.   These have rallied signficantly since the election and I expect a short term top is near.   If material stocks surpass recent highs, I would also consider selling some of these.

Option 3.  The markets are flat.   I will make small selective purchases of a few stocks I have been following.

I expect Option 1 will occur, so I will take the George Costanza opposite choice and go with Option 2.

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back Tuesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Finally Profiting from Out of Favor Energy Stocks

In late 2014,  I started to buy oil stocks which had fallen significantly.   In 2015, I continued to buy as oil stocks fell further.    In 2016, I continued to buy as some oil stocks reached new lows.  Then the pain became to great and I stopped buying.

With the recent speculated OPEC (but not yet delivered) cut backs in production, oil stocks have been on a tear lately, advancing as much as 20% in a day.  During this time, I have been selling parts of positions into the rally.   I was skeptical that the stock rally was sustainable at such high rates of gain.

However, the gains have been continuing, I have revised my outlook.   It seems this rally may be more like the 1.5 year rally in 2013 to mid 2014, where many oil stocks rose to new highs.  If history repeats, oil stocks may continue to rally throught 2017, which would be great.

So for now, I'm going to let our oil stocks ride and maximize our profits.  For some of the big gainers (e.g. about 100%), I may lock in some gains and take some profits.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back Mondays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

I'm Not This Smart

"There is nothing like quite like a bull market to make people think they are smart." ~ Jim Rogers

Since the 2016 election, my stock investments have been going higher.   Some stocks have gone up as much as 100% during that time.  About 95% of my new purchases in the past couple months have risen in price.

I am just not that good of an investor at picking stocks.  It's the market that is rising  I've been lucky to make some buys just before the election and am benefiting from those purchases.

Right now, I believe this market advance will last at least until the end of 2016,since upward momentum and stock market conviction has returned.  I think the S&P will continue to rise and reach 2300 by year end as I forecast in A George Costanza Stock Market.

After that who knows what will happen, but my inner George Constanza predicts a 20-30% advance for the S&P :-)

For more on  Reflections and Musings, check back Saturdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Amazon's Future of Shopping

Amazon Go, the cashierless grocery store, is another step in the evolution of shopping.   For my grandparents, store inventory was stocked in a back room and retrieved by the store clerk.  When I was a child,  shopping was self service, with payment at a central cashier.  Self-serve checkouts came after I became an adult.  Now, Amazon has advanced to no checkout.

There are some concerns that this will be the end of cashier jobs, of which there are 686,000 in the grocery industry.  That may be true.  However, there will be thousands of other jobs created.   As I read it, the technology is based on a number of cameras and sensors tracking the shopper through the store, and interpreting the shoppers actions to determine what is being purchased.   These cameras and sensors will need to be maintained, audited and periodically replaced.   Also, more security will be needed to update systems as hackers try to game the processes.  That will create numerous new job positions, although probably not directly transferable for displaced cashiers.

In addition, there may be opportunities for new higher value service positions that improve the shopping experience: for example, food concierges, who can help diets, recipes and other food related areas to differentiate stores from self serve status.  When the routine work is automated, knowledge based services will still be of value, IMHO.

It will be very interesting to watch how this experiment evolves, and its impact on the future of work for my children.

For more on Crossing Generations, check back Thursdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Financial Education Books

My brother-in-law asked my spouse what I might like for Christmas.  Usually, I don't have any good ideas.   However, this year I gave it some quality thinking and decided to request one of two investment books.  The first book is Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings by Phillip Fisher.   Warren Buffet claims to have used the principles in this book for his investing.  The second book is The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing by Benjamin Graham.   This is the classic textbook for value investing.

I have not read either book and based on reviews, I thought they would help improve my investing knowledege and results.





Disclosure:  No compensation was received for writing this post.  If  purchases are made through the above Amazon.com link, I may receive compensation as an Amazon affiliate member.

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back Wednesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Hunting for Value

Despite the stock market being near or at all time highs, there is still opportunity to find stocks on sale because they are out of favor, despite no fundamental changes in the companies' businesses. For example, REITs, consumer staples and utlility stocks have been going lower, getting close to 52 week lows.   While I understand the reason for the decline is that interests are expected to rise, it seems to me the stocks have been beaten down more than would be appropriate.  

So I've been buying small amounts of stock in these three sectors.  As usual, I may be early and the stock will be decline further.   However, I do expect the good companies in these sectors to rebound and these stocks also pay a good dividend (3-7%) which is a bonus while waiting.

Stocks I am considering:   Procter & Gamble (PG), Duke Energy (DUK), Phillip Morris (PM) Realty Income Corporation (O), National Retail Property (NNN), Game and Leisure Property (GLPI) and W.P. Carey (WPC).

Disclosure:  We own PG, DUK, PM, O and, NNN.  We may take positions in GLPI and WPC in the next 72 hours.

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back Tuesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

The Return of Economic and Financial Hope

My sentiment about the economy and financial opportunity has significantly improved in past month.  To me the reward/risk ratio has significantly increased for people invest money, invest resources, and invest personal effort for financial gain. Financial opportunity will greater for more people, and more money can be earned.

The pendulum is swinging towards rewarding people for the results they can deliver.  Personally, I have typically done better in a meritocracy (e.g. school, sports) where results mattered more, than in a bureaucracy (e.g  major corporations, government) where politics mattered more.

I am looking forward to having many more opportunities for financial success.

For more on New Beginnings, check back Sundays for a new segment.


This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Trading the Rotation

The market reaction to the election has been interesting.  Previously high flying stocks such as utilities, telecom, gold miners and REITs have been knocked down, with some getting close to 52 week lows.  Similarly, bonds have taken a big hit.   Previously beat up stocks such as financials, biotechs, and materials are rising, some by as much as 50% versus a couple weeks ago.  Energy stocks have been mixed, some have bounced and some are still down.

In the weeks leading up to the election, I was taking the opportunity to buy some beaten up stocks, that I already own.  Some of these have now rallied over 40%.   Since I don't think the Trump rally is sustainable, I plan, as a hedge,  to sell off some of the recent purchases for a profit, while keeping my core holdings.  That way if the market sells off, I will have locked in profits.  If the market continues to rise, my core holdings will benefit.

In addition, I will be looking to purchse stocks in higher dividend paying stocks that have been beaten down (and are now on sale :-) since the election:  REITs, utilities, telecoms, and consumer staples.  Despite the concern about rising interest rates, I still believe locking in 3-5% dividends is still a good strategy at this time.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back Mondays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

My Solution for Running in Place Frustration

Lately,the market seems to be having a lot of activity, but little movement in total value of our accounts.   When one sector goes up, another sector goes down, resulting a wash.  Lately, material, gold and utility stocks have been falling, while oil stock are rising.  This is just the opposite of what was occurring a few months ago.

Based on this activity, I will start taking trading positions in some of our core equity holdings.  That way when the stock rotates upward, I can take some profits and repurchase the trading position when the stock falls.   However, I will only trade shares in excess of the core position amount.  That way when the market resumes an upward trend, the core positions will all benefit from the market advancing.

For more on  The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC