I'm still on the sidelines watching SPCX. I'm waiting for it to fall below its initial IPO price of $135, which is below its opening price of $150 on June 12, 2026, the first day of trading. At $135, all retail owners will be underwater, which may create a selling dynamic driving the price down further.
On the other hand, adding SPCX to the indices is expected to drive prices up, due to buying pressure. On June 29, 2026, SPCX will be added to the MSCI and Russell indices. In early July 2026, SPCX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index. SPCX won't be added to the S&P500 until after a 1 year waiting period and achieving 4 quarters of GAAP profitability.
The valuation of SPCX doesn't make sense to me. It seems people are betting on Muskman to deliver extraordinary valuation like Telsa. For reference, Telsa has a market cap greater than the next 35 car companies, despite being seventh in profitability. Huh?? I guess that's the Muskman premium.
In 2025, SPCX lost $4.9 billion, yet valuation is about $2 trillion. IMHO, the Muskman premium isn't worth that much. I think I will wait until SPCX is under $10 before think about buying. Today, SPCX closed at $157.73, down $30.40 or 14.74%.
However, FWIW, I've often been wrong about tech/internet stock early valuation including many of the current top market cap stocks.
Disclosure: I currently own Tesla stock (TSLA) despite being overvalued by traditional metrics.
This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.
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