Expect COVID-19 to Return

"I'll be back." ~ Arnold Schwarzenegger in Terminator

Given the rise of COVID-19  cases in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and California, it seems a resurgence of coronavirus in the U.S. is very likely.   

Business Closings

A subsequent closing of businesses  is also likely, but not as extreme as the first one.   The focus will be on businesses that are crowded with customers.

Bars will be first to close or be severely restricted in capacity.   In my area, based on drive by observation, the bars seem as packed as they were before coronavirus.

Restaurants may be more restricted in capacity such that the business may not be sustainable.

Work from home will be a norm where possible, eventually increasing the vacancies in offices.

Cruise lines won't survive.

On the other hand, all retail establishments will be allowed to stay open, not just essential businesses.  Even with reduced occupancy limits, I expect most will be able to operate profitably.

Personal Restrictions

People will be expected to follow guidelines to prevent spread.

Masks will be required instead of being optional.

Stay at home will be optional, primarily for those at high risk.

Schools

Full time in person school will not occur.   Perhaps part time, or worse case, exclusively distance learning.

Extra curricular activities and sports will be canceled.

Vaccine

A vaccine is not likely given there is still no vaccine for HIV, SARS nor Ebola, which have been around for years, even decades.   

Conclusion

The economy is likely to further into recession, given the loss of jobs, the decline of consumer spending and failure of small businesses.   Cash will become king, despite low interest rates.


For more on Reflections and Musings, check back  Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial, pandemic nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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