Saturday, June 20, 2020


"If you don't know where you're going, you'll end up someplace else." ~ Yogi Berra

I am flummoxed and having a crisis of confidence.

This market has me totally confused.  The fast rebound, some stocks hitting new 52 week highs, penny stocks doubling, tripling and more, and confidence in a V economic recovery do not make sense to me.  I thought many stocks were over priced before COVID-19 lockdowns.

I thought the downturn was going to be  extended and allow more time for stocks to be reasonably priced.      Now after lockdowns, many of the stocks have recovered 50% or more of their losses, with some exceeding previous highs, despite the overall fundamentals (and economy) being worse than before the lockdown.   The DOW and S&P are near their highs, and the Nasdaq has hit a new 52 week high.  I don't get it.

 I tried shorting with  Norwegian Cruise Lines, but bailed out due the volatility, and closed the short with a very small gain.   If I had stayed in a few more days, I would have had a 10% gain. 

Perhaps time to get out of the market.

I think I will continue selling profitable peripheral positions in our trading account, and perhaps even some profitable core positions.   I believe lower prices will be coming, and will try to mitigate the impact by reducing our equity exposure.

For more on  Reflections and Musings, check back Saturdays for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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