Scaling Into a Trending Up Market

Over the next few weeks, I plan to scale in the remaining additional funds into our different investment strategies.   Since the end of January 2018, I've been scaling into the dip.   In most cases, this has been a profitable approach.   Although I started purchases at higher levels, I have also made several purchases, hopefully, near the bottom.   In many cases, the short term bottom has already happened.  In a small percentage of stocks/strategies, the price/valuation is still finding the bottom.

At this point, I believe the correction is over and the market may soon cross new highs.  Rather than wait for the next correction, I plan to invest the remaining funds as the market advances.   However, I will do this by scaling in (buying small lots over time), just in case the market pulls back before making its next advance.

For more on Strategies and Plans Ideas, check back every Monday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Stock Market Breakdown ... Or Breakout?

It's been a little over 6 months since the most recent correction began in January '18. I know some still believe the market is in correction and will test the previous lows and may even breakdown.  However, with the market only about 3% below previous highs the recent correction possibly ended in March '18. 

Since the average time for a correction to reach a new high is 4 months (which is the end of July '18), I'm thinking there is also a good possibility of a breakout.  In my opinion, the market is more likely to advance over 3% than decline 8% in the next few weeks.   

.Breakdown or breakout?  I planning on a breakout.

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Why This Bull Market Can Continue

"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." ~ Mark Twain

Recently, there have been an increase of articles cautioning the end of the bull market.   The reasons are numerous:  the longevity, PEs, increasing interest rates, narrowing breadth, geopolitical uncertainty, and, of course, Donald Trump, whose actions extends the list of specific concerns further.

It is a great list of concerns.   However, I think the opposing view, that the bull market can continue, has merit also.

• This is the slowest post WWII economic recovery.  One would have expected a steep recovery given the depth of the recession.  However, the slow recovery may be delaying a future recession since business have not yet over invested and created excess capacity.
• Businesses are still cautious.   Most businesses seem to be still under investing and cutting costs, especially the industrial ones.   No one seems expect an economic boom. 
• Still a great deal of pessimism.  Almost everyone I know thinks this bull market is unsustainable will end.  And there has been a increase in people predicting the onset of a bear market since the election of Donald Trump.  Bull market die when there is excessive optimism and irrational exuberance, neither of which are evident at this time.
• Finally, it is questionable whether this bull market started in March 2009 (bottom of bear market), March 2013 (crossed previous high), or Feb 2016, (the latest major correction).  So this bull market may not be that long in the tooth.

My sense is that this market is still intact, but may be vulnerable to a significant external event.  But until then, this bull market can continue.

For more on  Reflections and Musings, check back every  Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Resigned to a Progressive Takeover

In 2016, I was resigned to Hillary Clinton being our President for the next 8 years.   No way that Donald Trump could win.   Imagine my surprise when I woke up at 2AM to Donald Trump in the lead.

Similarly, I am resigned to the Democrats retaking the majority in the Senate and the House in the 2018 midterms.   

For more on  Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Is 2018 Analogous to 2008 or 2012?

Currently, I wrestling with whether the volatility and lack of market conviction is more like the 2008 market or the 2012 market.  Early 2008 preceded the Great Recession in late 08 to 09 and 2012 preceded the Great Melt Up of 13. 

Right now, I am leaning towards 2012.    However, in 2008 I also was expecting a recovery in the market, which didn't happen.

So right now, I am expecting a melt up, but won't be too surprised if there is a major downturn either.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Why Some Bricks and Mortar Retail are Losing to Amazon

I'm old fashioned.  I prefer to go to a store to touch and feel what I buy.   I have never ordered through Amazon.   The few times I have ordered online was because the item wasn't available at a local store, or it was much cheaper than the local appliance parts store.  Otherwise, I drive to the store and buy the part.    As background, we live in an area where just about every major retailer is within a 2-3  mile radius.  The main exceptions are Sears, Nordstrom and a few other mall anchors.

So one of my home projects is the highlight in gold the raised letters on our address plate.   Based on searching,  the ideal solution was an oil paint Sharpie.  According to my search, a big box retailer had the product and the lowest price, about half the price of Amazon.  I checked and they had two in stock.  I called, and they said they had three in stock.   I decided to pick it up on the way back from dropping our daughter off at lessons.

The next morning, I showed up 1.5 hours after opening.  It wasn't available on the shelves.  And the price was twice as much  I went to customer service to check, who confirmed they would honor the internet price. Their system said there were 2 in stock.  They sent someone to pull it, but she said there were none available.   I asked to order and pay for it.  They said they could only charge me for physical items at the store.

So I went home, created a store account (as required) and ordered the product to pick up in store.   An hour later, I received an e-mail that said the item was not in stock.   However, they offered free shipment as a solution (or choosing a store that was 10 miles away).  I took the free shipment option, but will have to wait until this weekend to get the item.

I did complain to the retailer about the inaccuracy of their "in stock" info.   They gave me a stock answer, which I accepted but knew it was covering for the inefficiency of their stocking info.   But I did let them know that I felt like I should have been better helped since I was actually in their store. 

I will still choose to go to the store; but for this retailer, I will order online to make sure it will be at the store when I go there.

 For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial, investment or shopping advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

My New Perspective on Personal Belongings

I was scanning the Internet for some used skis/boots/poles for the kids and came across a estate auction site.  I was shocked to see the low current bid prices on items such as hand made Persian rugs.  The bids were as low as $1, although there was still 2 days left to bid.

So I have concluded that almost everything I own is depreciating and will be worth almost nothing if I sell them.  Very disappointing, but probably will lead me to think differently about how I spend my money on material things: Maybe owning stuff is not such a good idea....

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

A Potential Last Hurrah Retirement Job

Recently, I was thinking that a great last hurrah, short term,  retirement job would be to work for the President of the United States.  Then I saw this article that the Trump Administration is having a job fair.  So I might apply for a position.

I'm not looking for anything long term, so this may be a perfect fit :-)

For more on  Reaping the Rewards , check back every Friday for a new segment.

This is not financial or job  advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Doubling Income is Life Changing

In his book Factfulness, Hans Rosling makes the point that for people in Level 1 of extreme poverty (living on less than $1 per day) a dollar, an increase in income is life changing, noting that a $1 increase income per day would make little difference to people in Level 3 and 4, the upper half.   However, he did comment that a doubling of income for people in these level's would also be life changing.

His comment got me thinking that maybe I need to revise my financial goals to doubling my income over a specific time, say every 10 years on average.  So after 30 years, I would have 8 times my starting income. 

This approach may cause me to rethink our investment strategies.

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every  Tuesday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Investing in a Coccoonng Theme

It seems to me that businesses that enable people to get things done without leaving home are doing very well.  Examples include:  Amazon (shopping); Facebook, and Twitter (Social Connections); Grubhub (eating out); and Netflix (entertainment).    I may start an account devoted to this theme and invest accordingly.

Disclosure:  We have positions in Amazon, Facebook, Grubhub and Netflix at the time of this posting.


For more on New Beginnings, check back every  Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2018 Achievement Catalyst, LLC