Stock Market Warning Articles. What to Do?

Pundits are highlighting the Schiller P/E as an indicator of a near term market top followed by a bear market.  This article from Yahoo Finance shows the Schiller P/E at the second highest level with the 2000 dot-com crash being the highest.

This stock market indicator just flashed a warning not seen since the dot-com bubble

The Motley Fool warns that margin debt is also indicating a possible top followed by a bear market based on recent history.

The Stock Market Is Doing Something Observed Only 4 Times Since 1997 -- and the Previous 3 Instances Ended in Disaster for Wall Street | The Motley Fool

Here's a new one that I just learned about: increasing corporate bankruptcies and private credit yield spreads.

An economist who studies financial crises says the US is on the brink of recession. These are the 2 warning signs.

I admit, when I was younger, I used to worry a lot about another 1929 crash occurring.   As a result, I often sold my winners for a small profit, especially since individual stocks would have high volatility in a crash, sometimes with the result of never recovering.  As a result, my returns are much less than the the total market returns.

What is an investor to do?

In hindsight, here's what I would do:

• In my 20-30s, I would put at least $159 per month into a broad market, low fee mutual fund (around 0.1% or less fees).   I would do an S&P 500 mutual fund.   I would just hold until my 60s, before withdrawing or selling any funds at which point the account would be about $1 million.  In the long term, the overall stock market always goes up.
• When bonds or CDs are 5% yields or higher,  I would start buying longer term, say 5-20 years and hold.   If in a taxable account, I would withdraw the interest earned and spend, since I am already paying income tax on the interest.  If in a tax advantaged account, I would leave and use to invest in a broad market mutual fund.
• I would save 6 months to 3 years of cash and keep it in a money market fund.
• In my 40s-50s, I would start increasing funds put in fixed income.   I would still not sell any of the equity mutual fund investments.
• Retired and/or in my 60s-70s, I would start scaling out of some of individual stocks and/or market mutual fund while going up or very high.  Transfer to money market or short term fixed income.
  

I think there is a future opportunity to find a sweet spot for percentages to have, sell or transfer at different times.  But that is for another future TBD post.

Of course, YMMV.

Disclosure: I did not receive any compensation from Yahoo Finance nor The Motley Fool for this post.

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This is not financial, stock investment nor investment timing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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