Festival of Stocks #55 - Apple, Inc. Edition: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Welcome to the Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Edition of the Festival of Stocks. This special edition is focused entirely on Apple, Inc., the company that gave us the Mac, iPod and iPhone. Before proceeding, I would like to thank George at Fat Pitch Financials for giving me the opportunity to host this venerable Festival a second time and for allowing a special single stock edition.

The return of Steve Jobs in 1997 has brought about an upswing in Apple's fortunes. Since Mr. Jobs' return, Apple has introduced the iMac, iPod, iTunes and most recently the iPhone. The iPod and iTunes has been the main driver of Apple's growth in recent years. The combination of the iPod with iTunes has been a magnificent business innovation by Apple. Neither were new technology, but Apple combined the two in a way that made recording music downloads easy and legal to do. In the past four years, an investment in Apple, Inc. has returned 201% (2004), 123% (2005), 18% (2006), and 69% (2007 YTD). And since January 2, 2003, an investment in AAPL has returned about 2000%.

So what should an investor do now? We have four submissions this week that recommend either Buy, Sell and Hold.

Buy Side

AAPL: I Pare Apple Arguments and Give the Edge to the Bulls is submittted by Bill Trent at Stock Market Beat. "Few stocks boil the blood of both bull and bear as much as Apple (AAPL), and for good reason. The company, richly valued though it is, has come out with more cool products than the rest of the tech industry combined. That helps excite the bulls, and as for the bears, there’s a good chance many of them are jealous for having missed out on the stock’s run. They have sour grapes they hope will someday be pressed into wine... If the company can grow at even half the current rate over the next five years, investors are likely to be well compensated for the added risk."

Sell Side

Time To Sell Apple? is posted by Babak at Trader's Narrative. "I don’t think it is an automatic short here since it could very well go into a protracted range and work out its overbought condition. But if you’re long, I’d be very careful here."

Glamorous Apple is written by George at Fat Pitch Financials. "You’d be hard pressed find someone that has negative feelings towards Apple. However, Apple’s stock is just too loved. It does not provide any real margin of safety. It’s fun to keep up with the lastest developments at Apple, but I’m leaving the following of this stock’s price to the traders."

Hold

Stock Revisited - Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is offered by Average Joe at Investment Jungle. "At the current price of $138.41, Mr. Market is demanding a premium of 15.05%. Now, considering that I have erred on the side of caution with both my growth rate and PE, 15% does not seem so far off...Rule #1 methodology is fairly strict. It looks for consistency over a 10 year period which Apple just does not deliver. Apple is more of a momentum stock and it has definitely been on a sweet run over the last couple of years. "

Reader Opinions

So there you have it. One buy, two sell and one hold recommendation. Who do you think is right? What's your opinion of Apple, Inc. stock? Let us know what you think in the poll below:

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2007 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Festival of Stocks #49 - Time For Medicine Edition

Welcome to the Festival of Stocks #49 - Time For Medicine Edition. First, I would like to thank my dad who taught and coached me on investing in stocks. We have spent numerous hours debating the merit and issues for our stock picks. Second, I would like to thank George at Fat Pitch Financials for giving me the opportunity to host this esteemed Festival.

To note, the number of submissions seemed lower than for the average Festival. Perhaps, everyone has been too busy figuring out the market and didn't have time to participate in this Festival :-) Nevertheless, there were still many excellent posts on stocks, the market, investment systems, and alternative investments. With today being the one year blogiversary of My Wealth Builder, I was very generous with the criteria for acceptance to the Festival. If a post did not meet the Festival criteria, the submitter received a request for an alternate submission. Also, if more than one post was submitted, I chose the one I considered the better article. Finally, posts are show in each category in the order received, a bonus for early submitters :-)

On to the Festival .....

This past month has been an exciting one - down and up, again and again. It has been very much like a roller coaster with many peaks and valleys, loops and spirals. Enough to make even the strongest stomachs weak. If there is some lingering nausea, here are some potential remedies for the ride.

Stock Analyses and Recommendations

This year has been a "stock picker's market." If stock picking is your medicine, try these remedies.

Mr. Nabloid presents My Hedge Fund - The First Investments posted at Nabloid on Investing. Nabloid has created a virtual Hedge Fund at Investopedia and shares his strategy of buying LEAP options.
Stocks: YHOO NDM GRMN WFMI SLW

Average Joe presents Reader Request - Garmin Limited (NASDAQ:GRMN) posted at Investment Jungle. Joe offers, "Garmin Limited is still a Rule #1 stock in my opinion. However, it is currently over priced. Too much enthusiasm for my taste."
Stocks: GRMN

Average Joe presents Dividend Analysis - Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) posted at his second blog Dividends Matter. Joe notes, "All the financials are getting slaughtered over the sub prime concerns. Is this an opportunity to buy a great dividend yielding stock while the rest of the herd is running for the hills? All 3 valuation models point to a buy."
Stocks: C

Bill Trent presents ADBE: A Small Bet on Adobe posted at Stock Market Beat. Bill writes "I have followed Adobe Systems for several years, and up until now it has been one of the names I have been more successful at timing."
Stocks: ADBE

Tim Plaehn presents Stock Review: Thornburg Mortgage posted at Investing Thoughts. Tim says, "Recent market events have made this stock even more attractive! Thornburg Mortgage has dropped to around $23.50 today (August 3, 2007), making it a stock you should take a look at. I have owned and watched this stock for several years, and it has consistently traded between $23 and $28 a share." Festival Host's note: TMA closed at $18.06 on August 10 2007. It dropped to $17.25 after hours and seems to be another victim of subprime concerns.
Stocks: TMA

The Financial Blogger presents Top 10 Dividend Stocks in Canada posted at The Financial Blogger. TFB writes " As the markets are dropping, I wrote this article about the top 10 dividend stocks in Canada. A good way to protect yourself against inflation and to buy more defensive stocks. "
Stocks: ROC.TO RUS.TO BCE.TO MBT.TO NBD.TO EMA.TO TA.TO TS-B.TO LB.TO BMO.TO

Market Analysis

Since a tide raises and lowers all boats, analyzing the overall market trend can provide a remedy.

Jeremy presents 2nd Quarter 2007 Market Review posted at Generation X Finance. Jeremy notes, "An interesting trend has emerged during this period that shows regardless of market capitalization, growth re-emerged as a leading investment style over value for the first time in years." I have been investing in Growth since 2004. Hopefully, 2007 will reward me for being early :-)

Leon Gettler presents Bear markets and the Rumsfeld effect posted at Sox First. Leon comments, "You know things are really looking bad on the markets what the central banks start pumping in money to ease the liquidity crunch. But it’s a band-aid solution because no-one where the risks are. It’s a bit like Donald Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns”. Do the banks know something we don’t?"

Babak presents Sentiment Overview For Week Of August 10th 2007 posted at Trader's Narrative. Babak observes that every sentiment measure shows the market has not reached a bottom yet.

Super Saver, presents New Life For The Bull Market - For Now posted at My Wealth Builder. Super offers, " Hmmm...........When I have I seen this happen before? 1997? 1999? It's time to get ready for the ride, both up and down."

Investment Systems

For the scientists, mathematicians, or optimists among us, there is nothing like a model or system to serve as a remedy.

Blain Reinkensmeyer presents 7 Strategies for Online Stock Trading posted at Stock Trading To Go. Blain shares, "Investment strategies come in all different shapes and forms and can integrate both technical and fundamental analysis together, while some strategies just involve one or the other." A good set of strategies to consider for one's use. In my experience, it's helpful to know about more than one strategy since each strategy may be more successful in certain types of markets.

Thomas Ott presents Using Genetic and Evolutionary Algorithms to Build a Trading Model posted at Neural Market Trends. Thomas shows readers how to use RapidMiner's Evolutionary Algorithm to build a trading model. One of the drawbacks of a model is that it can be static while the market evolves. A self learning model is a great idea.

Golbguru presents I Am Happy When The Market Goes Down presented by Money Matter and More Musings. Golbguru muses, "A fall in stock prices seems like a 'grand sale' for me. If the price drops further, I am going to buy more aggressively. If the price increases, I will switch to my normal investing frequency, but still keep buying."
Stocks: SPY

MoneyNing presents Can We Use Alexa Rankings to Buy or Sell Stocks posted at Personal Finance Blog by Money Ning. MN wonders,"Whether or not Alexa Rankings can be used to buy or sell a stock since some companies' earnings are directly related to traffic."
Stocks: AMZN, YHOO

Silicon Valley Blogger presents 8 Ways To Invest Internationally: How Much Foreign Exposure Should Your Portfolio Have? posted at The Digerati Life. SVB advises, " If you’re after growth and want to be well diversified, the conventional wisdom is that you pack your investment portfolio with some foreign punch."

George presents Buybacks vs. Dividends posted at Fat Pitch Financials. George shares, "Last week’s poll at Value Investing News asked, 'As a shareholder, which would you rather have? Buybacks, dividends, or other.' Here are the results: There are good reasons to prefer buybacks in some cases and dividends in other cases."


Emotional Elements

As my doctor recommends, "If it hurts when you do something, don't do it."

Warren Wong presents Stop Checking That Stock posted at INTJ Personal Development. Warren recommends, "Focus on the things you can/will do something about. Ignore the things that are out of your control." Being an ESTP and personal finance junky, I probably check too often:-)



Alternative Investments and Options

When all else fails, punt. The best remedy may be to get out or keep one's cost low during volatile times.

Garrett Benner presents Time to Move into Commodities posted at Jim Cramer Blog. Garrett believes, "Today's commodity market has the stability and growth potential to draw an enormous amount of equity out of stocks and into the commodity market." Think "Bees."

FMF presents Illustration of How Costs Can Greatly Hamper Your Investment Returns (And Why Index Funds Do So Well) posted at Free Money Finance. "One reason many index funds have consistently done better than most managed funds is because they typically have lower expenses," Dr. Malkiel said in a recent Vanguard.com interview. "It is that gap between expenses of the two types of funds that gives you the advantage from indexing."

FIRE Finance presents World Currency Index CD From Everbank! posted at FIRE Finance. FIRE submits, "EverBank’s latest offering "World Currency CDs" is a great option for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios amidst a devalued dollar. This is a single CD comprising of multiple currencies each strategically designed to benefit from a specific regional strength and/or geopolitical and economic development."

Jorge presents Discount Online Broker Review - Zecco posted at My Adventures into The Street. He observes, "Zecco appears to be gaining steam in the discount brokerage game. It’s very difficult to top a $0 commission fee on regular equities. "

This concludes the 49th Edition of The Festival of Stocks. Next week's edition will be hosted by Fully Stocked and posts can be submitted via the blog carnival submission form.

Photo Credits in order of appearance: morgueFile.com, Microbiologist: Mary B. Thorman; Hospital Bed: Kenn Kiser; X-Ray: Clara Natoli; Button: Clara Natoli; Helicopter: Kenn Kiser

This is not financial or investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2007 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

My Wealth Builder Is Hosting The Festival of Stocks #49

My Wealth Builder will be hosting the 49th edition of the Festival of Stocks on August 13, 2007. I chose this date to host the Festival because it will be the one year blogiversary of My Wealth Builder. On August 13, 2006, I wrote my first post, Saving is the Starting Point, and history was made:-)

The Festival of Stocks is a blog carnival dedicated to highlighting bloggers' best articles on stock market related topics. This will include research and commentary on specific stocks, industry analysis, ETFs, REITs, stock derivatives, and other related topics.

Please help My Wealth Builder make this Festival on August 13, 2007 a memorable one. You may submit your relevant articles to the blog carnival form. I ask that each blog only submit one article for consideration.

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for the segment.

Photo Credit: morgueFile.com, peachyqueen

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2007 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Carnival Highlights For The Week #8

Here are the Carnivals from this past week that I am reading :

The Carnival of Personal Finance #94 is organized by No Credit Needed.	My Carnival choice is 10 Tips on Life and Disability Insurance: How And Why We're Getting More by Silicon Valley Blogger, which shares their current family situation (spouse starting own business and children) and how that affects their insurance thinking. I would also include determining how Disability and Survivor Income Insurance from Social Security can be used to cover part of one's insurance needs. After all, we've all paid for it already and should consider it available (until Social Security goes broke.)
The Tax Carnival #15 is hosted by Don't Mess With Taxes.	My Carnival pick is by Tax Information which offers some help with Costly Tax Mistakes and What You Can Do about Them. This is a good list. Here's what I'm doing to avoid making mistakes. Since I owe taxes, I will pay that amount and file for an extension. That will enable me to ensure that don't miss any items to claim.
The Carnival of Debt Reduction #81 is at Money Walks.	My Carnival selection is by Debt Free 4 Ever, which states it’s 70% Attitude and 30% Hard Work to get rid of debt. I like the point of the article. Getting rid of debt starts with personal commitment and needs hard work. However, getting rid of debt also requires having good (financial) knowledge, which the lack of sometimes cause a debt problem. Here's my build on the title: Getting Rid of Debt is 70% Attitude, 70% Knowledge, and 70% Hard Work. Perhaps, a topic for a future post :-)
The Festival of Stocks #30 is hosted by Investor Trip.	My Festival pick is Dell's accounting problems:the tip of the iceberg posted at Sox First, which opines that Dell is a victim of the "winner's curse" which caused them to miss learning that their business model is now obsolete. I agree. It is hard for a company to transform themselves periodically from what made them successful to what will keep them successful. That's the reason very few companies exist more than a few decades.
The Carnival of Personal Development is presented by Alex Shalman.com.	My Carnival choice is What They Don't Teach You In School posted at The Optimized Life. How to fail, continual learning, leadership, finance, and personal vision were identified self education areas that are important to personal success. I agree that schools are not designed nor responsible to teach these concepts. That's still a responsibility that I have as a parent. Another skill I would add to this list is "critical thinking."
The 68th Festival of Frugality is hosted by Mapgirl's Fiscal Challenge.	My Festival pick is Free 12-month supply of contact lens cases & coupons posted at Wise Bread - Living large on a small budget, which shares a Bausch & Lomb promotion for a free year's supply for contact lens cases. Another necessity I can get for free:-) I generally use a contact lens case for several months to a full year. Bausch & Lomb is trying to change my paradigm and will be sending me 12 cases as one year's supply. Since it's free, I'm willing to let them convince me:-)
The Festival of Under 30 Finances #20 is hosted by One Big Mortar Board.	My Festival pick is Starting Early: The Young Adult’s Guide To Personal Finance posted at Debt Consolidation News, which lists 65 elements in their guide. Many of the elements I ascribe to being a good student of finance, which I think is an important skill. Here are ones that have worked best for me: #2 - Pay yourself first, #50 - Choose a job-oriented degree and #61 - Plan for your retirement. One I didn't see and would add is: Only use debt for a home, college tuition, and perhaps one's first car.

I hope you enjoy reading these Carnivals and finding ideas you can use.

Check back on Saturday for the next Reflections and Musings segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2007 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Carnival Round Up For The Week #5

Here are the Carnivals from this past week that I am reading :

The Carnival of Personal Finance #91 is organized by The Sun's Financial Diary.	My Carnival choice is by The Stubborn Capitalist who presents The "Get Rich Quick" Fallacy. The article makes the point that "quick" does not mean "easy." In fact, his main learning from trying "get rich quick" programs is that getting rich requires hard work.
The Investor's Blog Network (IBN) Carnival #2 is hosted by Investors Trip.	My Carnival pick is What do you make of a stock market sell-off? by The Digerati Life, which advocates that fundamentals are still good at this time and only traders should consider exiting. I guess I'm a trader:-) I closed out all my 2007 purchases in my personal accounts on March 2, 2007 and am waiting for a clear bottom in the correction. In addition, I am seriously considering opportunities to short stocks for the first time since 2004.
The Carnival of Family Life #45 is at Adventure in the 100 Acre Wood.	My Carnival choice is Great Ways for Kids to Make Money posted at Getting Green. He presents a list of jobs that can help children learn about earning money for work. I would provide the additional possibilityof leveraging the Internet, since age and capital are not as critical in starting a successful Internet business.
The Festival of Stocks #27 is presented by Fat Pitch Financials.	My Festival pick is Is Chico’s Turning the Corner? at One Guy’s Investments, primarily because I currently own Chico's. Unfortunately, I have lost money on Chico's and am hoping that his analysis is right. Hope springs eternal, especially when one's investment has declined:-)
The Carnival of Investing is hosted by The Skilled Investor Blog.	My Carnival choice is Gold As Investment: The Basics posted at Money, Matter, and More Musings, which provides an excellent explanation of a karat and why it is important to the value of gold. Gold always has appealed to me, but jewelry and mining shares are the only forms I have owned to date. The inconvenience and worry related to keeping it are the main reasons I haven't invested in gold bullion or coins.
The Festival of Frugality #65 is presented by The Festival of Frugality.	My Festival choice is Stop The Financial Leakage! by My Two Dollars, which offers good tips on eliminating postage for paying bills, reducing cell phone plan costs, and not wasting water. My additional tip would be to eliminate the cell phone completely as I suggested in Buy Only What You Need.

I hope you enjoy reading these Carnivals and finding ideas you can use.

Check back on Saturday for the next Reflections and Musings segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2007 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Carnival Round Up For The Week #2

Here are the Carnivals from this past week that I am reading :

The Carnival of Personal Finance #88 is hosted by Stock Market Beat.	My Carnival choice is 5 Important Ways to Protect Yourself Against Job Loss by Debt Free. The guidance is a mix of diversification, having contingency plans, and having the right knowledge.
The Carnival of Debt Reduction #75: Diamond Jubilee Edition is hosted by Money, Matter and More Musings.	My Carnival pick is Shift Your Thinking to Reduce Debt presented at Extreme Perspective. It's a real life story that shows investing in real estate can be a lesson about debt management. I agree. In the past, I had found myself trying to justify debt and negative cash flow for real estate because it was an "investment." The reality is that it is still DEBT. Fortunately, I was never able to convince myself and didn't buy the properties :-)
The Festival of Stocks is hosted by The Stock Geek.	My Festival choice is Warren Buffet Buys More USG and More presented by Fat Pitch Financials, which highlights Mr. Buffet's recent buys and sells. If only I could know what Warren Buffet bought and sold before he did it:-)
The Carnival of Taxes #12 is hosted by Don't Mess with Taxes.	My Carnival pick is Reduce taxes by fighting your property appraisal posted at Trying To Get It Right. The excellent coaching tip to getting a reduction are: Follow instructions, do your homework, and meet deadlines. I will keep these in mind for when I receive my next appraisal of my home for taxes.
The Carnival of 30s and 40s Personal Finances: The Wealth Accumulation State is hosted by Making Our Way.	My Carnival choice is Leaving Taxes to My Accountant presented by Ask Mr. Credit Card, which provides good reasons for using a tax professional. I would love to outsource this annual task to an "expert." However, my personal experience with tax accountants has been less than stellar. While we were on an international assignment, my taxes were done by one of the major accounting firms for four years. In two of the years, I found errors which resulted in a higher refund. In another year, the accounting firm rechecked the filing and found an error (in data provided by my company) resulting in another significant refund. In only one of the years, there were no changes, perhaps indicating the return was done correctly. Admittedly, while I am not a tax professional, I prefer to read my returns in detail before signing them. And it is concerning to me that I found errors in two out of the four returns done by a professional tax preparer. On the other hand, I also admit that it is getting more difficult for me to keep up with all the new tax laws. So I continue to look for a tax professional that will meet our needs.

I hope you enjoy reading these Carnivals and finding tips you can use. I have moved my Carnival reviews from Tuesday (Ideas You Can Use segment) to Saturdays since several Carnivals that I read publish after Tuesday. In the Saturday review, I will be adding a bit more commentary to the review to fit into the Reflections and Musings theme.

Check back every Saturday for the next Reflections and Musings segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2007 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Carnivals I Am Reading This Week

Here are the Carnivals I am reading this week:

The Carnival of Personal Finance #85 is presented by Five Cent Nickel.	My Carnival pick is Acceptance of Your Financial Situation Can Be Freeing by My Financial Awareness, which makes the excellent point that one should be accountable for one's financial situation.
The Festival of Stocks is hosted at One Guy's Investments.	My Carnival pick is Wafer Fat for MEMC (WFR) posted by the host, One Guy's Investments, which makes his case for keeping the stock even though he has made over 200% and it is at a 10-year high.
The Carnival of Investing #58 is at The Digerati Life.	My Carnival choice is from A Financial Revolution which posted What the Hell is Beta? He provides a good layman's explanation of Beta and how to think about using Beta when doing analyses for investing.

I hope you enjoy reading these Carnivals and finding tips you can use. Check back every Tuesday for the Ideas You Can Use segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2007 Achievement Catalyst, LLC